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Eli

[FB 2019] Game #14: 12/7/19 - 3:00PM @ #5 Montana State [FCS Playoffs Round 2]

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5 hours ago, catbob said:

I understand, the timeliness of penalties and/or turnovers is a pretty big deal but not sure any coach at the FCS level is going to analyze when and how they occur and affect an opponent. There isn't an army of analysts like there is at the FBS level.  You'll just watch some game film and look at stats, and the stats certainly point to a team who doesn't make a ton of mistakes - Albany has a really good turnover margin, good passing efficiency, not many penalty yards against, but turning the ball over 20 times certainly is not a great stat for Albany.

Just kind of funny, that might be the first time I've ever heard someone call Choate clueless after watching a press conference.  He is extremely fun to listen to because he just talks football, loves talking football, and most times I feel I know more about football after listening to his pressers than I did before. 

Turnovers is a good discussion.  As your coach said, our Freshman QB is getting better every game,  maybe 1/2 of those were him dropping the ball.  The discussion about penalties is also on point.  We lost to Richmond 23- 20 down there.  Missed a FG AND an XP; PLUS we had 16 penalties.  Hard to win......  We lost to Monmouth - who also is going to the second round in OT, lots of penalties - consensus here is we would beat them 8 out of 10 times...  We truly could easily be 12 - 1 or 11 -2 right now.  But would have could have means nothing and we all know that. 

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2 hours ago, DanesRGood said:

Who let these guys in here?!?! Ban them all!!!

😋  Kidding MSU fans.  Welcome aboard and glad to read your thoughts.  This will definitely be a tough task for the Danes on the road in front of a big/loud crowd against what seems to be a very very tough team.  

Question for you. Do teams often "stack the box" to try and stop the run and are just unsuccessful because of all the running schemes that MSU runs? It really seems from the stats that the passing game is not that good but that may just be because the running game seems so good or as you said in your post, MSU doesn't need to pass in the second half when up big and the run is working. Our defense is not great against the run so this may be a tough situation for UA.

The UA coaches need to somehow figure out how to slow down the run (probably not going to stop it) and force your QB into passing situations, let Mencer and the other boys up front attack the QB and try and force some turnovers.  I said it an earlier post that if we can win the turnover battle I think we have a shot to win the game.  That will be hard to do from the stats I've seen but I think it's probably the best if not the only path to victory.

Another question, I've read a bunch of posts on your forum and your posts here. What are MSUs weakness?  From the posts I've read, they have all been about all the great things MSU does (don't take that the wrong way) but I want to hear what you, the fans who have watched most if not all the games, think are the biggest weaknesses.  Is it the passing game? Is it pass defense? Is it special teams? Secondary? WRs? QB? Every team has them.

Last point, I enjoyed your coaches press conference. He seems like a real football guy and was impressed by the jersey numbers and stats he was pulling out. I know he had notes he was looking at but seemed he had most of it on the tip of his tongue and not just reading off the paper.  Impressive. He did however build up UA a lot more than deserved. And someone's comment about the armory ad was more about how it would never be on anything in NY. I think it was just a comment on the differences in culture between the states and not a shot at anyone. 

Thanks for joining and looking forward to a fun week of build up and hopefully a hard fought game on Saturday.

 

 

First, "Built up Albany more than deserved.."  ??????????? Picked to finish last and ended up 2nd in the league... beat 5 ranked teams (when we played them and a couple who were ranked all year). And this from a UA fan..... really.  Don't agree with US not good against the run.  There have been a few games when we gave up too much yardage but we stopped them when it mattered AND we have shut a couple of good run teams down.   Seem to have a tougher time against a Running QB who can really fake as LB's, as your coach said, come up inside quickly - don't get back to the outside running QB after the fake.  Could have an issue with wildcat QB.  Against a team that seldom passes a few def. changes could stop that.  We'll have to see.

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I do agree that we don't know Montana State weaknesses. It was refreshing to hear your coach do a short scouting report.  Haven't heard even a short one in some time since I left coaching. Our coaches obviously have to come up with something to slow down the Montana running game and Def. pass rush so we can pass.  Our running back, Mofor, has not been stopped too many times this year, thus way over 1200++ yards.  When teams try to put more guys in the box, i.e. Central Conn., it frees up the passing game even more.

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1 hour ago, HOF2013 said:

First, "Built up Albany more than deserved.."  ??????????? Picked to finish last and ended up 2nd in the league... beat 5 ranked teams (when we played them and a couple who were ranked all year). And this from a UA fan..... really.  Don't agree with US not good against the run.  There have been a few games when we gave up too much yardage but we stopped them when it mattered AND we have shut a couple of good run teams down.   Seem to have a tougher time against a Running QB who can really fake as LB's, as your coach said, come up inside quickly - don't get back to the outside running QB after the fake.  Could have an issue with wildcat QB.  Against a team that seldom passes a few def. changes could stop that.  We'll have to see.

Yes, we've had a great season and I believe we are a very good team BUT did you watch the press conference?  The MSU coach made us sound like the best team in the country. The posters on the MSU board even said, "Wait until Monday when our coach makes your team sound like the greatest ever." or something like that.  They weren't kidding. He names basically every player and said a number of them can play in the NFL. I think he just exaggerated a bit. That's all.  I was NOT taking a shot at our team. 

As for the rushing defense, it ranked 47th in FCS and allowed almost 150 yards per game.  That's not good.  We do however make big plays when it counts in the red zone, which you are correct about and where we rank 23rd in Red Zone Defense.  We talk about it all the time, bend but don't break. MSU is one of the best rushing offenses in the country against an average rush defense. It will be tough but not impossible!

Rushing Yards by game:

CMU - 244

Bryant - 120

Monmounth - 190

Lafayette - 94

WM - 184

Richmond - 121

Towson - 93 

URI - 144

Maine - 169

Delaware - 225

UNH - 106

SBU - 100

CCSU - 199

That is not that good. It's not TERRIBLE but not good.

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3 hours ago, catbob said:

MSU certainly has some weaknesses.  On defense they just aren't glaring.  Our biggest weakness when you look at it statistically is certainly pass yardage given up, but MSU has played the #1, #6, #17, #15, #23 and #26 rated passing offenses in the country in terms of yards per game, in addition to Texas Tech.  But of course 3 of those were losses - Texas Tech, #26 UND and #15 Sac State.  But defense wasn't the problem at UND, as we only gave up 16 points and 7 of those were a blocked punt TD (the other TD was a trick play). But If we're looking at yards per game, Albany would be 8th in the Big Sky (but first in TD passes).  This to me means Albany takes huge advantage of turnovers forced and must start with pretty good field position. 

As statistically good as our rushing defense looks, it has been vulnerable at times as well when we are too focused on stopping the pass.  And we will give up some yardage through the air if we can't get to Undercuffler, teams have had some success throwing against us in terms of yards but like I said points are another matter entirely, we're giving up just 21.5 PPG and that includes 45 to Texas Tech.  Our tackling has been suspect at times throughout the year but again that has really cleaned up since the Sac State loss, a lot more gang tackling now.

Offensively obviously the weakness is throwing the ball, but Tucker Rovig has improved game by game.  He went through a rough patch midway through the season (only like his 4th-7th career starts) but his last two games have been the best of his career IMO.  Against UCD he was 17/25 for 217 yards, and against UM he was 7/11 in the first half for 102 yards, and only attempted 2 passes in the 2nd half (both incomplete).  MSU will throw the ball early simply to show you that we can and that you better not sell out completely to the run.  If the run game is getting shut down don't look for MSU to all of the sudden become a pass happy team - we ran our way back from a 31-14 3rd quarter deficit against NAU and won 49-31, at one point running the ball 22 straight times, even with a 3 score deficit.  The OL has given up some big sacks so there is another potential weakness - we thrive on 3rd and short, if we are forced into 3rd and long we are not good and our 3rd down % reflects that.

The other potential weakness is that sometimes our offensive playcalling gets... boxed in as Choate called it when things don't go well.  We abandon some of the stuff that is working, but honestly it was a huge emphasis after the UND game and it really hasn't been an issue since then, playcalling has been much better and creative, but certainly could rear it's ugly head again.

Special teams are solid all the way around, kicker is a bit inconsistent but can boot it from 50+.  Coverage is very solid and we have one of the best FCS punters in the country.

Thanks for the insight catbob.  Interesting read.

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Run those slants and then pump fake them into this.... Second tweet below.  Not sure why it keeps posting both.....
 

 

 

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So, I am wondering how its going with digging out of the snow, Is your team going to be able to practice on the field today or are they in the indoor soccer place again?

 

I am assuming that your guys are like us, when a storm like this hits you just deal with it and move on, the rest of the country gets 1/2" of snow and below freezing and everyone loses their mind

 

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30 minutes ago, Cats2506 said:

So, I am wondering how its going with digging out of the snow, Is your team going to be able to practice on the field today or are they in the indoor soccer place again?

 

I am assuming that your guys are like us, when a storm like this hits you just deal with it and move on, the rest of the country gets 1/2" of snow and below freezing and everyone loses their mind

 

I was driving my wife to work in 20". Snow is part of living in NY. We deal with it.

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4 minutes ago, Eli said:

I was driving my wife to work in 20". Snow is part of living in NY. We deal with it.

Its always funny when we have -20° weather and snow for 2 weeks and nobody hears a thing, suddenly someplace like Denver gets 0° and a little snow and it national news about a major winter storm.

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35 minutes ago, Cats2506 said:

Its always funny when we have -20° weather and snow for 2 weeks and nobody hears a thing, suddenly someplace like Denver gets 0° and a little snow and it national news about a major winter storm.

1/4" in Washington DC and the city shuts down with accidents and emergency services

20" in Albany and the Schools are delayed 2 hours and your boss gets upset with you for being an hour late for work - because you had to snowblow your driveway an additional time before you could force your way through the bank the snowplow left. 

This is a pretty big similarity between our markets. Weather won't affect the Cats and also wont effect the Danes. 

 

From my understanding , the field has been plowed and the team is practicing outdoors. Playing in the 40 degree heat in Bozeman will be tropical for us!

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15 minutes ago, godanesgo99 said:

1/4" in Washington DC and the city shuts down with accidents and emergency services

20" in Albany and the Schools are delayed 2 hours and your boss gets upset with you for being an hour late for work - because you had to snowblow your driveway an additional time before you could force your way through the bank the snowplow left. 

This is a pretty big similarity between our markets. Weather won't affect the Cats and also wont effect the Danes. 

 

From my understanding , the field has been plowed and the team is practicing outdoors. Playing in the 40 degree heat in Bozeman will be tropical for us!

Yeah, I wasn't insinuating that weather was a factor in this game. I think both teams are from a similar environment.

Good to hear that your team is back on their own field today

as of now the forecast for KO is 40°, 12% chance of precip, 7 mph wind, with the temp dropping a few degrees by game end

Perfect football weather

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40 minutes ago, godanesgo99 said:

because you had to snowblow your driveway an additional time before you could force your way through the bank the snowplow left. 

 

And if you don't get to it fast enough (like me), it becomes a wall of nearly ice. My snowblower struggled a bit last night but I got through it. Felt like I was partaking in the 'Big Dig' in Boston lol.

(I work from home so don't leave my house sometimes for 2-3 days at a time lol)

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I noticed Albany gets a ton of TFLs, and forced fumbles.  The DL isn't all that big so I'm guessing they are extremely active and attempt to jump gaps with twists, stunts, etc..  Is that an accurate assessment?

You almost need to treat MSU like a triple option team.  You need to be extremely gap sound.  If an DL or LB twists or stunts into the wrong gap I mean you're talking a huge gain for MSU.  Honestly that is the #1 reason we've beat our rival Montana 4 years in a row, is because they do a ton of post-snap movement and we exploit that to the max.  We've beaten them 4 years in a row.  I mean we've only throw the ball for a combined 395 yards in 4 games, not a single TD or interception thrown (isn't that a crazy stat?).  But we've rushed for something like 330 yards a game over that span.  MSU is a bad matchup for UM who runs a very aggressive defense and thrives on post-snap movement and letting their two stud LB clean up the mess, because we have the personnel, scheme and coaching staff (in game adjustments) who can take advantage.

It'll be an interesting matchup, to see if Albany can create those TFLs or if MSU can exploit Albany's scheme.

Edited by catbob

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