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These lovely folks in Montana sound a lot like the lovely LCC fans who think the MAAC is heads and shoulders better than the AE (or MVFC vs CAA). We've been down that type of road before. On paper it's a lot closer than they want to admit, hence why they are already pages deep in their confidence thread and are lurking here (read: lack of confidence). 

This guy in particular, for all his research, seems to lack the understanding of the concept of SOS. Or he conveniently ignored it:

Quote

1. The CAA is way down this year. Despite claims to the contrary, they are a 1 team conference. Moreover, we don't know how good that team (JMU) is because they only have had two competitive FCS games this year (@Stony Brook - a team that started strong and faded quickly, and vs. Villanova).
2. The best FCS teams Albany faced this year were fellow playoff team from the Big South - 10-2 Monmouth (loss), plus 7-5 Towson (win), 6-6 Maine (loss), and 6-5 New Hamphire (win). Their other loss was against 5-7 Richmond. The rest of their wins were against sub-.500 squads in the CAA, Patriot, and NEC.
3. The Big Sky was strong at the top this year. Five teams playing a Big Sky schedule made the playoffs. Four were seeded 3-6. Another Big Sky team (Davis) played 7 playoff teams (NDSU, UND, San Diego, and the Big Sky 4) and an FCS team this year. Not surprisingly, they finished 5-7. EWU started slow, but finished 7-5 as well. The rest of the Big Sky was their own form of mediocre, winning games against each other they shouldn't win and losing games against each other they shouldn't lose. They were the CAA, only they faced 7 teams they really couldn't beat unless they pulled an upset (Weber, Sac State, MSU, UM, North Dakota, EWU, and Cal Davis).

This season was a perfect storm for Albany. They had to have faced the easiest schedule possible in the CAA, their non-conference opponents were from much less powerful conferences and they won 2 of 3, and they beat enough mediocre teams to get to 8-3 in the FCS. Winning 8 games in the FCS isn't easy, so I'm not diminishing that, but I do believe that had Cal Davis played their FCS schedule, Davis might have been 10-1 or 11-0 in the FCS. Anyhow, Albany looked overmatched in the first half against a CCSU team that was way undersized. I mean, on a field goal attempt, an Albany D-Lineman was able to push a guard straight back so far that the kicker kicked the ball into the middle of his back. At half, the adjustment to be made was informing the team that the CBs on CCSU had neither the size nor the speed to cover the Albany WR at all.

So, when I say Albany is lucky to be in the playoffs, I point to their schedule and remind you the toughest team they faced this year was either Monmouth or 6-6 Maine. They got to their 8 wins, but it seems like the path there was pretty easy. When I compare them to the lower half of the Big Sky, it is because I feel that the Big Sky is much, much better than the CAA this year. Go take a look at all of Albany's games and results and look at the same for UC Davis. Luck plays a huge role here.

I'm not generally optimistic. I was really nervous for a few games this year: SEMO, Cal Poly (bad matchup), Sac State (I knew they were good), Davis (good team, bad schedule), and UM. I wasn't worried enough at UND. I am confident for next Saturday. I feel like this Albany team would have settled in below EWU, Davis, and UND of the teams playing a Big Sky schedule this year. Can they beat MSU? Of course! Will they? No. 38-17 Bobcats.

 

Edited by Eli
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That's pretty funny.  I guess SOS means nothing and watching one game tells you everything you need to know about a team. No need to compare SOS or stats.  I think it will be closer than they think but I'm also not confident we can beat them. 

Edited by DanesRGood

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Everybody makes the lazy assumption that if we didn't play James Madison we had the easy schedule.

If the CAA's southern pod were switched, Albany would've played JMU, Villanova, and Elon instead of William and Mary, Richmond, and Towson. Albany beat Towson by 17 while Nova beat TU by 7 in overtime (and nova lost to Brook). Albany beat W&M by 8, Elon lost to them by 2. Albany lost to Spiders by 3 on the road, probably lose to JMU. (Or, Albany beat Towson by 17 on the road, JMU beat Towson by 17 at home.) So it's possible if not likely that Albany's record would be the same even if they played the "tougher" schedule.

And the loss to 1st round winner Monmouth was in OT on the road.

Edited by UAalum72
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1 hour ago, DanesRGood said:

That's pretty funny.  I guess SOS means nothing and watching one game tells you everything you need to know about a team. No need to compare SOS or stats.  I think it will be closer than they think but I'm also not confident we can beat them. 

We got nothing to lose... Picked dead last in caa in preseason... House money at this point. Sling the rock and let's see what happens. 

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As for their message board... They have basically punched their ticket to the next round. 

Nice overconfidence you got there Montana st. It would be a shame if something happened to it... 

 

 

 

tenor.gif

Edited by Clickclack

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On 11/30/2019 at 8:51 PM, HOF2013 said:

I read their game time forum.  They think we are slow, no run game and throw only slants and Jeff will be on his back all day....... And they will pound us.  Maybe, but...... I agree with JIMBO!

 

This is funny--for years some of us on here including myself were pleading for more slant routes! 😀

 

 

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My observation is Albany has gotten ZERO respect from anyone this year!! From the coaches in the league to the columnists to the opposing players but all we do is keep winning. Delaware was going to beat us at their place and UNH had a devastating defense, SBU was going to ruin our playoff hopes and CCSU were going to "pound us!!!" We pissed away Richmond but so be it. And still if you look on the other sites there is little mention of Albany anywhere. Maybe they fear us I don't know but a win on Saturday would force them to pay attention. I agree 100% with Click. The pressure is all on #5 MSU!!! Just go out to Montana and let the kids  play loose, have fun and let JU sling it 60 times and see what happens.

Congratulations to Coach Gattuso and his staff. Also a big thankyou to all our kids who are playing their hearts out!!! 

Edited by MRuler 79
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Somebody on the MSU board wants the server in Our moderator’s basement to be restarted and time synced. Just passing it along.  Been having a pleasant conversation with the Montanans. Altitude is a concern to me and will test our depth for sure.  Does the NCAA allow oxygen on the sideline?

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25 minutes ago, jimbo said:

Somebody on the MSU board wants the server in Our moderator’s basement to be restarted and time synced.

lol...

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I think if we are going to pull off an upset creating turnovers is going to play a key role. We have forced 27 turnovers this season in 13 games.  That is pretty damn good and if you look at the games we've won turnovers have played a big part. Even in the Central Mich game, we were in the game because of the turnovers we forced (Forced 3, gave up 1) and some nice passes by Undercuffler. At Monmouth, we lost and forced 2 but had 5 turnovers. At Richmond lost the game and the turnover battle 2-0. Against Maine we lost the game and lost the turnover battle 3-1.  I won't go into the wins but we forced 6 turnovers in our 4 losses so that leaves 21 turnovers in 9 wins.

MSU is a tough team from what I've read and from the stats.  They are tough against the run and can pressure the QB a good bit. I know they say their secondary is bigger and faster than what we've seen but I'm confident Green and Reeves have shown they can get open against anyone (see Central Michigan game). My biggest worry is they contain Mofor and are able to get good pressure on Undercuffler to throw off the passing game. This is where the turnovers are going to be big.  They have only turned the ball over 9 times the whole season.  Only 4 INTs but they had 131 less passing attempts than UA this season and ranked 81st in FCS in passing. 

 

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On 12/1/2019 at 1:18 PM, DanesRGood said:

Fun little exercise to compare the teams. I'm no Eli so I couldn't really get things to line up.

Some things to note. They are a very heavy run first team. We passed a lot more than them this season. 
3316 yards passing for us vs 1990 for them.  Rushing yards 3241 for them vs 1780 for us. 
We do have the 9th best rusher yards wise in FCS where as they use much more of a RB by committee approach. 

UA
Mofor: 1239
James: 593

MSU
Logan Jones: 788
Isaiah Infanse: 518
Travis Jonsen: 432


I keep reading on their site that they will get heavy ammounts of pressure on Undercuffler. 
That might happen but I was expecting better sack stats than 17th in the country from what I was reading. 
Only two more sacks than we got all season.

They have Bryce Stark who had 13.5 sacks this year, another guy with 6.5 sacks and 33 overall sacks as a team.  
We have Mencer with 14.5 and 31 total as a team.	

I'll let you guys analyze the rest...

	3rd Down Conversion Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP 3RD CONV	OPP 3RD ATT	PCT					
3	Albany (NY)	13	53	178	0.298					
50	Montana St.	12	68	185	0.368					 
										
	Completion Percentage									
RANK	TEAM	G	PASS COM	PASS ATT	PCT					
80	Albany (NY)	13	247	435	0.568					
81	Montana St.	12	172	304	0.566					
										
	Defensive TDs									
RANK	TEAM	G	FUM RET TDS	INT RET TDS	TDS					
5	Albany (NY)	13	3	1	4					
	Montana St.	12	0	0	0					
										
	Fewest Penalties									
RANK	TEAM	G	PENALTIES	PYARDS						
35	Montana St.	12	63	547						
89	Albany (NY)	13	84	653						
										
	Fumbles Lost									
RANK	TEAM	G	FUM LOST							
14	Montana St.	12	5							
102	Albany (NY)	13	11							
										
	Fumbles Recovered									
RANK	TEAM	G	FUM REC							
2	Albany (NY)	13	16							
41	Montana St.	12	9							
										
	Passes Had Intercepted									
RANK	TEAM	G	PASS ATT	INT						
2	Montana St.	12	304	4						
34	Albany (NY)	13	435	9						
										
	Passes Intercepted									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP PASS	OPP INT	INT RET YDS	INT RET TDS				
46	Albany (NY)	13	382	11	180	1				
64	Montana St.	12	438	10	91	0				
										
	Passing Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	PASS ATT	PASS COM	INT	PASS YDS	YDS/ATT	YDS/COMP	PASS TD	YPG
33	Albany (NY)	13	435	247	9	3316	7.62	13.43	39	255.1
105	Montana St.	12	304	172	4	1990	6.55	11.57	14	165.8
										
	Passing Yards Allowed									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP CPL	OPP PASS	OPP PASS <BR/>YDS	OPP PASS <BR/>TDS	YDS/ATT	YDS/COMP	YPG	
46	Albany (NY)	13	228	382	2712	21	7.1	11.89	208.6	
85	Montana St.	12	281	438	2864	15	6.54	10.19	238.7	
										
	Red Zone Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP RZATT	OPP RZ RUSH TD	OPP RZ PASS TD	OPP RZ FG MADE	OPP RZSCORES	PCT		
23	Albany (NY)	13	39	11	11	7	29	0.744		
53	Montana St.	12	35	15	9	4	28	0.8		
										
	Redzone Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	RZATT	RZ RUSH TD	RZ PASS TD	RZ FG MADE	RZSCORES	PCT		
10	Montana St.	12	52	32	8	7	47	0.904		
33	Albany (NY)	13	52	11	25	8	44	0.846		
										
	Rushing Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP RUSH	OPP RUSH YDS	YDS/RUSH	OPP RUSH TDS	YPG			
17	Montana St.	12	414	1440	3.48	17	120			
47	Albany (NY)	13	502	1926	3.84	15	148.2			
										
	Rushing Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	RUSH	RUSH YDS	YDS/RUSH	RUSH TD	YPG			
6	Montana St.	12	549	3241	5.9	39	270.1			
82	Albany (NY)	13	426	1780	4.18	12	136.9			
										
	Sacks Allowed									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP SACKS	OPP SACK YDS	AVG					
10	Montana St.	12	13	85	1.08					
76	Albany (NY)	13	31	196	2.38					
										
	Scoring Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	TDS	OPP XP	2PT	OPP DXP	OPP FGM	OPP SAF	PTS	AVG
23	Montana St.	12	35	33	0	0	5	0	258	21.5
35	Albany (NY)	13	39	36	1	0	12	1	310	23.8
										
	Scoring Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	TDS	PAT	2PT	DEF PTS	FG	SAF	PTS	PPG
21	Central Conn. St.	13	60	53	3	0	7	0	440	33.8
22	Montana St.	12	53	51	0	0	12	0	405	33.8
31	Albany (NY)	13	56	50	1	0	10	0	418	32.2
										
	Team Passing Efficiency									
RANK	TEAM	G	PASS ATT	PASS COM	INT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	PASS EFF		
27	Albany (NY)	13	435	247	9	3316	39	146.26		
81	Montana St.	12	304	172	4	1990	14	124.13		
										
	Team Passing Efficiency Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP PASS	OPP CPL	OPP INT	OPP PASS <BR/>YDS	OPP PASS <BR/>TDS	PASS EFF		
41	Montana St.	12	438	281	10	2864	15	125.82		
62	Albany (NY)	13	382	228	11	2712	21	131.7		
										
	Team Sacks									
RANK	TEAM	G	SACKS	SACK YDS	AVG					
19	Montana St.	12	33	215	2.75					
42	Albany (NY)	13	31	185	2.38					
										
	Total Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	PLAYS	YDS	YDS/PLAY	OFF TDS	OPP TDS	YPG		
38	Albany (NY)	13	884	4638	5.25	36	39	356.8		
40	Montana St.	12	852	4304	5.05	32	35	358.7		
										
	Team Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	PLAYS	YDS	YDS/PLAY	OFF TDS	YPG			
19	Montana St.	12	853	5231	6.13	53	435.9			
53	Albany (NY)	13	861	5096	5.92	51	392			
										
	Turnover Margin									
RANK	TEAM	G	FUM REC	OPP INT	TURN GAIN	FUM LOST	INT	TURN LOST	MARGIN	AVG
14	Montana St.	12	9	10	19	5	4	9	10	0.83
26	Albany (NY)	13	16	11	27	11	9	20	7	0.54

 


Looks fairly ever to me, yes? No?
 

 

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22 hours ago, UAalum72 said:

Everybody makes the lazy assumption that if we didn't play James Madison we had the easy schedule.

If the CAA's southern pod were switched, Albany would've played JMU, Villanova, and Elon instead of William and Mary, Richmond, and Towson. Albany beat Towson by 17 while Nova beat TU by 7 in overtime (and nova lost to Brook). Albany beat W&M by 8, Elon lost to them by 2. Albany lost to Spiders by 3 on the road, probably lose to JMU. (Or, Albany beat Towson by 17 on the road, JMU beat Towson by 17 at home.) So it's possible if not likely that Albany's record would be the same even if they played the "tougher" schedule.

And the loss to 1st round winner Monmouth was in OT on the road.

AND the consensus is that if we played Monmouth 10 times we'd beat them 8 - 9.   We had times, mostly early in the year, when the guys lost focus.  It is tough to learn to win after losing for even a couple of years!  Nothing new for us to get no respect, been that way all year.  Not even ranked when teams like Towsan, Central Conn, NH, Maine were ranked most of the year.

I do agree the CAA is down this year, maybe.  There is far more parity than there has been the last several years.   Is the Big Sky all of a sudden far better this year than the last couple?  Maybe.  I do not know much about those teams.  As I said that's why we play the games.   

As others have said, we were picked to finish last in the CAA and finished second.  AND JMU IS that good,  They have demolished ranked teams all year.

Wonder why MRuler 79 left our Game with Central Michigan off the list when he was telling us how weak our schedule was.  We lost 21-38 - and as we know the game was closer than the score.  Maybe Montana State is as good a team as Central Michigan is.  I guess we'll see. 

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