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9 hours ago, BestDaneSinceHamlet said:

I believe in science

I do too, among other things. But do you have access to the scientific data? I don't. You and me are in the same boat relying on information being given to us by people who have it...and some are saying one thing while others are saying the opposite. Who do you believe when you can't see that scientific data yourself? That's my point.

I've resigned myself to just stop following the pundits and everyone who is trying to get their $0.02 in on the subject and just deal with it day by day.

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I'm actually pretty happy to be in my blue state, thankyouverymuch and think that the safety of the many supersedes the rights of a few.    It's called the greater good. Maybe we should talk abou

I could see fall sports delayed or cancelled, but honestly, if we as a country aren't back to normal by the time winter sports start practice we will have much bigger issues than college sports. We wi

I’d have to see what the plan was and what the infection rates were at the time. If it can be done safely, sure. I was at some games last year where it looked like most of the upper deck was practicin

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5 hours ago, jimbo said:

Call me crazy, but I’ve not renewed FB season tix yet. Until there is a clearly stated policy regarding refunding tickets in the event of a shutdown, I’m holding back. I’ve got to think that people who lay out the big bucks for major college and pro sports have got to be thinking the same thing.  I agree that there’s a lot more at stake than sports...a LOT more. 

Many football 🏈 and basketball 🏀 programs are facing bleak renewal and new subscription sales for season tickets until the health and social distancing concerns are resolved.

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1 hour ago, Eli said:

I do it, among other things. But do you have access to the scientific data? I don't. You and me are in the same boat relying on information being given to us by people who have it...and some are saying one thing while others are saying the opposite. Who do you believe when you can't see that scientific data yourself? That's my point.

I've resigned myself to just stop following the pundits and everyone who is trying to get their $0.02 in on the subject and just deal with it day by day.

Without going too far down this rabbit hole I’ve yet to see any people of science in much disagreement.  Only certain elected officials disregarding or ignoring science 

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1 hour ago, BestDaneSinceHamlet said:

Without going too far down this rabbit hole I’ve yet to see any people of science in much disagreement.  Only certain elected officials disregarding or ignoring science 

Two weeks ago scientists said no need for masks.  Two weeks ago science was predicting much higher death tolls (even with social distancing).  Science changes.
 

Science unfortunately is not an exact science.   

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There is a lot of discussion on what the best course of action is, and no not all science agrees. We actually need people to get sick and recover right now, we just need it to happen slowly so we don't overload the healthcare system. Social distancing is good, but this wear a mask everywhere and avoid everyone will do more harm than good - unless we want to stay with everything shut down until a 100% effective vaccine is available (at least a year from now, if ever)

It's called "Herd Immunity" look it up. Learn about it. Once "herd immunity" is reached, the spread of the disease will quickly die down and eventually stop. If we do not get to herd immunity, we will have a second outbreak as soon as social distancing is relaxed. This is why you see the opposite in Sweeden right now. Distance those vulnerable, and encourage the healthy and strong to be out in the world and get sick!

  • Herd Immunity = (r(0)-1) / r(o) 
  • If covid-19 has an r(0) of 2 - then we need half of the population to have immunity for us to be considered "safe" as a county
  • if covid-19 has an r(0) of 3 - then we need 2/3 of the population to have immunity to get to "herd immunity"
  • The USA has 330,000,000 people.
  • According to current estimates, COVID-19 has an r(0) value of somewhere between 2-3
  • This means we need somewhere between 150,000,000 and 200,000,000 million Americans to have immunity to reach "herd immunity"

How does someone get immunity?

  • Get vaccinated - unfortunately current estimates are that we are over a year from being able to have a vaccine tested and mass produced - if it is ever solved
  • Get sick and recover

We need people to get sick and recover while protecting those at risk of serious complications from getting it since we don't have a vaccine in sight. 

The problem is that the virus is pretty fast. Without social distancing we would theoretically get to the 150,000,000 to 200,000,000 cases pretty darn fast - but our healthcare system would crumble under that much volume all at once. People would die that shouldn't. People that could easily be saved and cured would die because of lack of healthcare resources. This is why you always hear "slow the curve". We need to get 200 million people to get it and recover so we can fully open everything up again and not completely kill the economy - but it can't happen all at once. Slow the curve.

If we do social distancing too well: like closing everything down and forcing people to wear masks everywhere the go we will never get to herd immunity without a vaccine. This means keeping everything shut down for another 12 months or more. That will kill the economy and potentially harm as many people as the virus itself. 

With overboard social distancing and masks we could potentially slow the virus to a crawl. We could get a false sense of security that things are safe and we can open everything back up. If we aren't at the stage of "herd immunity" when that happens, because Trump forces it or because everyone thinks it is safe, we will very quickly have another major outbreak and very quickly need to shut everything down again.

Sorry for the long post, but the current reaction is really pissing me off in how overboard it is. It is causing the shut downs to be longer than they should be, and it is increasing the risk of another major outbreak within weeks or months of everything opening up again.

  • PROTECT THE ELDERLY AND VULNERABLE
  • MAINTAIN SOCIAL DISTANCE TO SLOW THE SPREAD AND REDUCE THE CURVE
  • DO NOT GO OVERBOARD - WE NEED HEALTHY PEOPLE THAT CAN WITHSTAND IT TO GET SICK AND RECOVER
  • ROOT FOR A COMPANY TO FIND A VACCINE, GET IT TESTED, AND RELEASED

Sorry for the long post. This whole thing is just pissing me off more and more each day. 

Edited by godanesgo99
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2 hours ago, godanesgo99 said:

There is a lot of discussion on what the best course of action is, and no not all science agrees. We actually need people to get sick and recover right now, we just need it to happen slowly so we don't overload the healthcare system. Social distancing is good, but this wear a mask everywhere and avoid everyone will do more harm than good - unless we want to stay with everything shut down until a 100% effective vaccine is available (at least a year from now, if ever)

It's called "Herd Immunity" look it up. Learn about it. Once "herd immunity" is reached, the spread of the disease will quickly die down and eventually stop. If we do not get to herd immunity, we will have a second outbreak as soon as social distancing is relaxed. This is why you see the opposite in Sweeden right now. Distance those vulnerable, and encourage the healthy and strong to be out in the world and get sick!

  • Herd Immunity = (r(0)-1) / r(o) 
  • If covid-19 has an r(0) of 2 - then we need half of the population to have immunity for us to be considered "safe" as a county
  • if covid-19 has an r(0) of 3 - then we need 2/3 of the population to have immunity to get to "herd immunity"
  • The USA has 330,000,000 people.
  • According to current estimates, COVID-19 has an r(0) value of somewhere between 2-3
  • This means we need somewhere between 150,000,000 and 200,000,000 million Americans to have immunity to reach "herd immunity"

How does someone get immunity?

  • Get vaccinated - unfortunately current estimates are that we are over a year from being able to have a vaccine tested and mass produced - if it is ever solved
  • Get sick and recover

We need people to get sick and recover while protecting those at risk of serious complications from getting it since we don't have a vaccine in sight. 

The problem is that the virus is pretty fast. Without social distancing we would theoretically get to the 150,000,000 to 200,000,000 cases pretty darn fast - but our healthcare system would crumble under that much volume all at once. People would die that shouldn't. People that could easily be saved and cured would die because of lack of healthcare resources. This is why you always hear "slow the curve". We need to get 200 million people to get it and recover so we can fully open everything up again and not completely kill the economy - but it can't happen all at once. Slow the curve.

If we do social distancing too well: like closing everything down and forcing people to wear masks everywhere the go we will never get to herd immunity without a vaccine. This means keeping everything shut down for another 12 months or more. That will kill the economy and potentially harm as many people as the virus itself. 

With overboard social distancing and masks we could potentially slow the virus to a crawl. We could get a false sense of security that things are safe and we can open everything back up. If we aren't at the stage of "herd immunity" when that happens, because Trump forces it or because everyone thinks it is safe, we will very quickly have another major outbreak and very quickly need to shut everything down again.

Sorry for the long post, but the current reaction is really pissing me off in how overboard it is. It is causing the shut downs to be longer than they should be, and it is increasing the risk of another major outbreak within weeks or months of everything opening up again.

  • PROTECT THE ELDERLY AND VULNERABLE
  • MAINTAIN SOCIAL DISTANCE TO SLOW THE SPREAD AND REDUCE THE CURVE
  • DO NOT GO OVERBOARD - WE NEED HEALTHY PEOPLE THAT CAN WITHSTAND IT TO GET SICK AND RECOVER
  • ROOT FOR A COMPANY TO FIND A VACCINE, GET IT TESTED, AND RELEASED

Sorry for the long post. This whole thing is just pissing me off more and more each day. 

I went to Lowes today...did not war a mask...doing my part!

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1 hour ago, Bball2020 said:

The political lining in all of this is pissing everyone off, sucks to live in any blue state right now.

I'm actually pretty happy to be in my blue state, thankyouverymuch and think that the safety of the many supersedes the rights of a few.    It's called the greater good.

Maybe we should talk about climate change next ;)

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6 hours ago, BestDaneSinceHamlet said:

I'm actually pretty happy to be in my blue state, thankyouverymuch and think that the safety of the many supersedes the rights of a few.    It's called the greater good.

Maybe we should talk about climate change next ;)

Unless it's actually the reverse.

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1 hour ago, Clickclack said:

Still here...not dead

I was chewing on this in the shower trying my best to avoid this conversation any further but unfortunately, I believe that education is the cure to ignorance:

1. Wearing a mask is not about you not getting infected from wearing a mask.  It's about the infected not passing it to others by wearing a mask and recent evidence suggests that asymptomatic passing is far more common with this disease than others.

2. Tribalism Kills.

 

Now, how about them Danes...

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28 minutes ago, BestDaneSinceHamlet said:

I was chewing on this in the shower trying my best to avoid this conversation any further but unfortunately, I believe that education is the cure to ignorance:

1. Wearing a mask is not about you not getting infected from wearing a mask.  It's about the infected not passing it to others by wearing a mask and recent evidence suggests that asymptomatic passing is far more common with this disease than others.

2. Tribalism Kills.

 

Now, how about them Danes...

I'm not ignorant to the facts, been following charts for weeks, haven't left house but for 2 occasions for going on 5 weeks. 3 weeks ago the same experts you now cling to told everyone NOT to wear a mask...so yeah, I'm mostly mocking you for the sheep you are as you blindly pontificate about science. Tell us again how the entire country is is incarcerated in their homes (or as you put it "the rights of a few") so that we can protect the "many" (most people show no symptoms, mortality rate is what 1.5%)... 

People are literally losing their homes, livelihood, sanity in historic and devastating fashion but instead of being logical, keep those who are highly vulnerable sequestered from society your answer is to violate the civil liberties of 300+million Americans instead of slowly opening up the least vulnerable segments of society.

 

Stupidity's mortality rate is exponentially higher than that of tribalism. Let me know if you want to discuss Darwinism some more. Maybe you'll find something in your heart for those who don't know how thy're going to eat tomorrow or pay their rent and consider the notion that everyone being locked up in their homes isn't the panacea you assume that it is. Or not, you do you!

 

How about them Danes!

 

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