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Posts posted by haggyland

  1. I am hoping that Albany can maintain intensity throughout this game and finally handle this team. I had thought everyone would be well rested, but 4 out of the 5 starters went 30+, with Zo going 27. On the bright side, UNH is in the same situation, but after a harder game that ended three hours later.

    Let's hope they get it done, and please, NO OVERTIME!

  2. Hey, some of us are anal...


    Yeah, the example of 50% was for illustration as to why you multiply. Using the estimates, for the 1 vs. 5 game I'd go for a little less than 75%, but either way I like our chances better than anybody else's.




    How about if you set the percentages of winning according to the difference in the two seeds in the game? (If 2 plays 7, gap is 5, and so on).


    I tried these numbers for fun:

    Gap, Percent of Time Higher Seed Wins

    1 0.55

    2 0.6

    3 0.65

    4 0.7

    5 0.75

    6 0.8

    7 0.85

    8 0.9


    From there you can calculate different scenarios.

  3. Using the nine team system, seven teams (seeds 1 through 7) would have a 12.5% chance to win. (1 in 8)


    Seeds 8 and 9 would each have a 6.25% chance to win (1 in 16), because they have an extra game at 50% chance of winning.

    (.5*.5*.5*.5=.0625 or 6.25%).

  4. DaneGuy-


    You have me google-ing probability to see if you add or multiply the games. The site that I have referenced states that if event are independent, their probabilities should be multiplied:




    I am also number driven by nature, and I have created some weird senarios for probabilities with the tournament. If they would hurry up and play the games, it would be more entertaining.




    Player of the Year: Kenny Adeleke (Hartford)

    Most Valuable Player: Jamar Wilson (Albany)

    Coach of the Year: Will Brown (Albany)


    It's a good way to avoid commintment by selecting a POY and an MVP, even if in this case it might make logical sense.



    Also, from Albany's web-site:




    Norwood, Mass. -- University at Albany’s Jamar Wilson and Will Brown were honored on Wednesday, March 1 by CollegeInsider.com as the America East Conference’s Most Valuable Player and Coach of the Year, respectively.


    Wilson, a 6-foot-1 junior, is second in the conference in scoring at 17.6 points per game, plus averages 4.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.4 steals. He has scored 20 or more points on 13 occasions this season, including 30 against Maine on Feb. 11. Wilson, the first player in school history to combine for more than 1,400 career points and 300 assists, was recently named to the NABC All-District II second team.


    Will Brown, who is in his fifth season as head coach, guided UAlbany to its first-ever America East regular-season title. The Great Danes, who will be the top seed in this week’s conference postseason tournament, have an 18-10 overall record, the most victories in the program’s Division I history. UAlbany has also established program Division I single-season marks for conference wins (13), home victories (9) and road wins (8). The Great Danes have made a 13-win improvement over the last two years since posting a 5-23 mark in 2003-04.

  6. Could seem slightly optimistic.

    If higher seeds prevail:


    1 -vs- 8 or 9: Say Albany has a 90% chance to win. (9 out of 10 games).

    1 -vs- 4: Say Albany has a 75% chance to win. (3 out of 4 games).

    1 -vs- 2: Say Albany has a 60% chance to win. (3 out of 5 games).


    To win all three: 0.9*0.75*0.6 = 40.5% chance to win.


    Of course, upsets can alter the percentages, and my numbers are by no means accurate, but I thought they make some sense.


    Still, Good Luck in the Tourney.

  7. I was always hoping that UAlbany could follow the success of Buffalo at the Div-1 level, and eventually get I-A football, and entrance into a premium conference, but now I see Buffalo might have done so at the price of their reputation.


    Buffalo will lose three football scholarships as a result of sanctions from the Academic Progress Report (poor scholastic performance of their student athletes):




    UAlbany has been careful to recruit accomplished student-athletes.

  8. How many times have you filled out a bracket and laughed at the likes of the Davidsons and the Woffords that got the 16 seeds, or worse, the play-in game?

    A 15 gets you noticed, without the stigma.


    Also, many people say they would rather lose as a 16 in the NCAAs then win the NIT. I think for an emerging program a prolonged NIT run would be better than a quick exit from the NCAAs. Of course, the NIT is never the goal, especially with three seniors. But wouldn't an NIT run be fun? ...Thoughts?

  9. I'm hoping that all the last seeded teams win their conference titles (except the America East where I would like a certain team from upstate New York to win). I think that only if there are a bunch of sub .500 teams will Lunardi modify his slightly pessimistic projection.


    Win the AE tourney....

  10. The link to the NCAA RPI Ratings is:




    Albany is up seven spots, to a somewhat respectable 127.

    Interestingly, Hartford and New Hampshire are 5th and 6th in the conference, respectively, with RPIs of 258 and 269.


    Also, the Mid Major 25 has Albany as the 32nd best team of the Mid-Majors, with the link:




    Here's to a productive tournament......

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