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Onions


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From this week's Onions column:

 

"-Here’s hoping Albany wins the America East tourney just so the country can see Jamar Wilson, one of the most exciting players anywhere. Wilson’s shaking and baking almost single-handedly got the Great Danes past Virginia Commonwealth in their BB game. He is a tremendous talent on a team with a number of players who can come up big against any given opponent. Also a fan of the other Wilson on Will Brown’s team, Brent Wilson. The sophomore has a nice touch and does a little of everything, reminiscent of former Vermont utilityman extraordinaire Grant Anderson of a few years ago. He’s the kind of glue player with size and skills that many teams at Albany’s level would go crazy for. It also helps that the Great Danes have a seven-foot center, Kirsten Zoellner, that allows him to step outside sometimes, where the 6-8 forward has hit 52 three-pointers."

 

The rest of the column

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Could seem slightly optimistic.

If higher seeds prevail:

 

1 -vs- 8 or 9: Say Albany has a 90% chance to win. (9 out of 10 games).

1 -vs- 4: Say Albany has a 75% chance to win. (3 out of 4 games).

1 -vs- 2: Say Albany has a 60% chance to win. (3 out of 5 games).

 

To win all three: 0.9*0.75*0.6 = 40.5% chance to win.

 

Of course, upsets can alter the percentages, and my numbers are by no means accurate, but I thought they make some sense.

 

Still, Good Luck in the Tourney.

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Sixty percent odds to win the tournament before the first game. Not bad, in my estimation.

 

We are one of 9 teams in the conference, and if each team were evenly matched that would mean only about an 11% chance of going all the way. Sixty percent sounds much, much stronger.

 

Cool information on the team from Onion.

Edited by olddog71
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Could seem slightly optimistic.

If higher seeds prevail:

 

1 -vs- 8 or 9: Say Albany has a 90% chance to win. (9 out of 10 games).

1 -vs- 4:        Say Albany has a 75% chance to win. (3 out of 4 games).

1 -vs- 2:        Say Albany has a 60% chance to win. (3 out of 5 games).

 

To win all three: 0.9*0.75*0.6 = 40.5% chance to win.

 

Of course, upsets can alter the percentages, and my numbers are by no means accurate, but I thought they make some sense.

 

Still, Good Luck in the Tourney.

12289[/snapback]

 

That's one thing that has always made me dislike probabilities (ie, not understanding them). Because you can multiply the percentages, therefore coming out with a lower percentage, or you can figure each one is independent of the others.

 

As an example..if you flip a coin twice, the chances of getting two heads in a row could be .5*.5=25% ...but, the coin doesn't know that it was heads the first time and the first flip doesn't affect the second flip as there is always a 50% chance of getting heads.

 

For those of you not wanting a pathetic math lesson, I'm sorry. Probably doesn't help that I'm working on my Data, Models, and Decisions class right now..lol.

 

Either way..I like 60% better than 40%! :D LoL

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Good column in Onions on The Danes. Question for the board: I have seen all season on ESPN games the Pride of the Program which features a signifcant Div. I event for each of the Div. I teams. Does anyone know what they showed for UAlbany back in November? With not much of a history in DI and no major upsets since 1999, they would have been hard pressed to find anything to show. Thanks in advance for any responses. GO DANES this weekend!!!!!!!

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Good column in Onions on The Danes.  Question  for the board:  I have seen all season on ESPN games the Pride of the Program which features a signifcant Div. I event for each of the Div. I teams.  Does anyone know what they showed for UAlbany back in November?  With not much of a history in DI and no major upsets since 1999, they would have been hard pressed to find anything to show.  Thanks in advance for any responses.    GO DANES this weekend!!!!!!!

12294[/snapback]

 

Steve, rest assured that before we arrived at DI, we were regular DIII powers. DIII teams at the top could probably compete at the very low end of DI. They showed Doc Sauers (whom the RACC or the RACC court should be named after), and the 700th victory celebration. Doc retired with 702 wins in 43 years.

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Could seem slightly optimistic.

If higher seeds prevail:

 

1 -vs- 8 or 9: Say Albany has a 90% chance to win. (9 out of 10 games).

1 -vs- 4:        Say Albany has a 75% chance to win. (3 out of 4 games).

1 -vs- 2:        Say Albany has a 60% chance to win. (3 out of 5 games).

 

To win all three: 0.9*0.75*0.6 = 40.5% chance to win.

 

Of course, upsets can alter the percentages, and my numbers are by no means accurate, but I thought they make some sense.

 

Still, Good Luck in the Tourney.

12289[/snapback]

 

I can't help but play with the numbers, I am an accountant by nature, but if you want to take into account that each game is individual of itself then you take the probabilities of winning (.9 + .75 +.6) total of 2.25 and divide it by the total possible, which in this case would be 3 for a probability of 75% of winnning all three games if they are truly independent of each other.

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DaneGuy-

 

You have me google-ing probability to see if you add or multiply the games. The site that I have referenced states that if event are independent, their probabilities should be multiplied:

 

http://www.peterwebb.co.uk/probability.htm#mutual

 

I am also number driven by nature, and I have created some weird senarios for probabilities with the tournament. If they would hurry up and play the games, it would be more entertaining.

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Adding them gives the average chance of winning each game, which is worthless unless betting on whether a team will win any one game of three.

 

Multiply to get the chance of winning all three.

 

If all eight teams were equal, each team's chance of winning it all would be

.5 * .5 * .5 = .125 (1/8)

 

If you added them, (.5 + .5 + .5) / 3 = .5, and obviously every team can't have a 50% chance to win three games.

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Adding them gives the average chance of winning each game, which is worthless unless betting on whether a team will win any one game of three.

 

Multiply to get the chance of winning all three.

 

If all eight teams were equal, each team's chance of winning it all would be

.5 * .5 * .5 = .125  (1/8)

 

If you added them, (.5 + .5 + .5) / 3 = .5, and obviously every team can't have a 50% chance to win three games.

12301[/snapback]

 

But wouldn't that still be a bit off because there aren't 8 teams in each round? Or no?

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Adding them gives the average chance of winning each game, which is worthless unless betting on whether a team will win any one game of three.

 

Multiply to get the chance of winning all three.

 

If all eight teams were equal, each team's chance of winning it all would be

.5 * .5 * .5 = .125  (1/8)

 

If you added them, (.5 + .5 + .5) / 3 = .5, and obviously every team can't have a 50% chance to win three games.

12301[/snapback]

 

But wouldn't that still be a bit off because there aren't 8 teams in each round? Or no?

12303[/snapback]

Those are the chances at the start of the tournament.

 

You only play one game in each round, so you've always got 50% chance to win the next game to get to the next round.

After round one, each of remaining four teams has a 50% chance of winning the next round , but a 25% chance to win the tournament. It balances by the losing team's chance of winning the tournament dropping to 0.

Edited by UAalum72
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Wow, as sad as it may seem this discussion on probabilites is actually pretty interesting. As for the comment about betting, I work with and sit across from a Binghamton Alum all day so of course there is a small wager involved.

 

And based on the fact that all the proabilities are based on assumptions of which team is better there is no real mathematical way to calculate what the odds of winning the whole thing are. I put our chances at 100% based on the follwing assumptions, we play SB or UMB in the first round (doesnt matter which team), Hartford in the 2nd round, and either BU, Bing or Maine in the finals based on the fact that we have beaten all of these teams both times we have played them this year.

 

Now I will save at least one person the trouble and note that this post was in jest and not meant to be taken seriously, otherwise someone might think that I am an uneducated sports fan who has no clue what he is talking about.

 

Either way I like our probability....GO DANES!!!!

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