Bracket Previewed

[Zalman B]

Check out http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxsc...rticle=20080317.

 

The WhatIfSports simulation engine ran the comeplete brackets 10,000 times to predict who was most likely to win the national title (and advance to each step).

 

Their Winner? Kansas, winning an incredible 31.6% of the time. By comparison, the other #1 seeds - Memphis (11.1%), UNC (10.5%), and UCLA (4.4%) - combined for only ~26.0%.

 

Other interesting notes -

 

The lowest seed to win the national title at least 0.1% of the time? #11 seed Baylor, at 0.6%.

 

The lowest seed to make the championship game at least 0.1% of the time? #15 seed, the America East's own, UMBC (0.1%), although they did not win the championship.

 

UMBC is 11.1% to make the Field of 32, 2.0% to make the Sweet 16, 0.9% to make the Elite 8, 0.2% to make the Final 4, and 0.1% to make it to the championship - alas, 0.0% to win it all.

 

$iena is 41.3% to make the Field of 32, 11.4% to make the Sweet 16, 1.1% to make the Elite 8, 0.2% to make the Final 4, but 0.0% to make it to the championship (and so, obviously, 0.0% to win it all).

 

Boise State is 11.9% to make the Field of 32, 3.3% to make the Sweet 16, 0.3% to make the Elite 8, but 0.0% to make the Final 4 (and so, obviously, 0.0% to make it to the championship and 0.0% to win it all).

 

Duke is 84.4% to make the Field of 32, 47.5% to make the Sweet 16, 26.5% to make the Elite 8, 12.7% to make the Final 4, 5.5% to make it to the championship, and 2.3% to win it all.

 

UCLA was the most likely to win its first round game, winning 98.9% of the time. UNC was 2nd at 97.3%, UConn 3rd at 95.5%, Memphis 4th at 94.7%, and Kansas 5th at 93.3%.