2009 NEC Out of Conference Schedule

[danefan]

Thanks to aceinthehole over at AGS for the following compilation of the NEC's OOC 2009 schedule:

 

Albany – 9/5 at Georgia Southern (SoCon), 9/12 at UMass (CAA), 9/19 vs Maine (CAA)

CCSU – 9/5 at Lehigh (PL), 9/12 at William & Mary (CAA), 9/26 at Columbia (Ivy)

Duquesne – 9/5 vs. Bucknell (PL), 9/12 at Nichols State (SLC), 9/26 at Dayton (Pioneer)

Monmouth – 9/5 at Colgate (PL), 9/12 at Coastcal Carolina (Big South), 9/26 at Old Dominion (Indy)

Robert Morris – 9/5 at VMI (Big South), 9/12 at Bucknell (PL), 9/19 vs. Dayton (Pioneer)

Sacred Heart – 9/5 vs Marist (Pioneer), 9/12 at Holy Cross (PL)

Saint Francis – 9/5 at New Hampshire (CAA), 9/12 vs Morehead State (Pioneer), 9/19 at Northern Iowa (MVC)

Wagner – 9/5 vs Stonehill (D-II), 9/10 at NY Maritime (D-III), 9/19 at North Dakota State (MVC)

Bryant - 8 NEC opponents plus - 9/5 vs. Southern Conn (D-II), 9/12 vs. Hofstra (CAA), 10/10 at Fordham (PL)

 

9 NEC teams (including Bryant) = 26 non-conference games (SHU only schedule 2 OOC games)

 

2009 NEC vs Conferences:

 

6 vs PL*

5 vs CAA*

4 vs Pioneer

2 vs MVC*

2 vs Big South

1 vs SoCon*

1 vs Southland*

1 vs Ivy

1 vs Indy

---

2 vs D-II

1 vs D-III

 

* denotes AQ conference

 

- 15 of the 26 games scheduled (58%) are vs. AQ opponents.

- All 9 NEC teams, have at least 1 AQ opponent.

- 5 of 9 NEC teams (56%), have at least 2 AQ opponents.

- 7 of the 9 NEC teams (78%), play only D-I opponents.

- 3 of the 26 games scheduled (12%) are vs non D-I opponents.

 

Very big step up in scheduling by the NEC. Our SOS should be much higher this year and our GPI and other computer rating numbers should improve greatly (no matter how flawed the computer systems are, they are a component of the Conditional AQ process).

 

To refresh, the NEC champ will get an AQ next year (09) if it meets the following conditions:

8 DI wins

2 wins against AQ conference teams

Average of 16 ranking in Coaches Poll, Sportsnetwork Poll, and NCAA GPI (computer ranking)

 

All teams except Bryant (not eligible yet), Wagner, and Sacred Heart can make it. Last year only Albany, Monmouth and Central Ct. had the schedule to qualify.

[UAalum72]

I thought games vs. Big South wouldn't count as AQ opponents, so Monmouth and RoMo only have one each. VMI and Coastal are more than acceptable for conference SOS but don't meet the narrow criteria for the conditional AQ.

[danefan]

I thought games vs. Big South wouldn't count as AQ opponents, so Monmouth and RoMo only have one each. VMI and Coastal are more than acceptable for conference SOS but don't meet the narrow criteria for the conditional AQ.

 

 

You are right. My mistake.

[uofalbany]

Albany: 9/5 at Georgia Southern (SoCon), 9/12 at UMass (CAA), 9/19 vs Maine (CAA)

 

To refresh, the NEC champ will get an AQ next year (09) if it meets the following conditions:

 

8 DI wins

2 wins against AQ conference teams

Average of 16 ranking in Coaches Poll, Sportsnetwork Poll, and NCAA GPI (computer ranking)

 

Ok, seeing that football season is on the horizon.

Who here thinks that UAlbany can fulfill the requirements and make it into the playoffs this coming year?

What a great way to go out for some of our mvp seniors..

What a great way to PREP for the upcoming AQ in 2010.

[danefan]

I said this over at AGS and got lambasted for it.

 

I think we can win 2 out of 3 against Georgia Southern, UMass and Maine.

 

UMass will be way down from last year, IMO. They lost their lifeline on offense, QB Liam Coen and will have to replace him with either of two guys who combined threw 11 passes last year. They have a JUCO transfer who was touted as their savior, but he struggled in the Spring (according to their own website reports). They also have a new head coach.

 

I don't see Maine being greatly improved from last year, but they were a playoff team, so that isn't to say they aren't going to be good. The one huge advantage we have is that the game is at our place. Their defense has a lot of holes to fill, losing 6 starters from last year. The great benefit we will have also is that there is a pretty good chance they will be overlooking us. They play at Syracuse the week after us and then go into a really difficult CAA schedule after that.

 

Georgia Southern will be a tough one. The first game of the season is always tough, especially when its on the road. The major factor against us could be the weather. You could be looking at 90+ degrees with 90%+ humidity levels in Georgia. That's tough to play in, especially in the beginning of the season. GSU is looking for a new QB, but they will be fast, very fast. The Southern Conference is arguably the second-best conference in FCS (behind the CAA) and GSU was on the brink last year of breaking out with very tight losses to Elon (22-20), Wofford (38-37 OT), and Appalachian State (37-36). There is a chance they'd overlook us as the travel to a tough South Dakota State team the next week, but given the fact that Central Conn. went to GSU in 2006 and won, I think overlooking us won't be likely.

 

All-in-all, I think it is possible to come out 2-1. It will be tough, but it is possible.

 

Besides that I think the league schedule will be tough this year, especially with Central Conn. I heard they institued a new offense to match their personnel. Specifically going to U.Florida to get some of the Tebow-type plays for their running QB. They always play us tough anyway.

 

Monmouth returns Sinisi (I feel like the kid has been there forever) but they lose their TE (drafted by the Dolphins) who was a big difference-maker in their offense. A receiving TE is rare in the NEC and they used him well against us last year. They also have to replace a QB, which in the NEC is always interesting.

 

 

With all of that being said - it is realstic for us to got 10-1 with a loss at Georgia Southern and still not qualify for the conditional AQ because a lot of voters in the Sportsnetwork and Coaches poll refuse to realize that the NEC isn't the NEC of the past. I think at 10-1 we'd get an at-large regardless of the poll ranking (NCAA committee selects them), but we need help from our NEC conference-mates who need to win some OOC games and raise the SOS.

[UAalum72]

8 DI wins - 90% (Bryant counts as D-I even though they're still transitioning?)

 

2 wins against AQ conference teams - 20% (I'd say almost 50% we get one, but two out of three is tougher since there's no Patriot League game this year)

 

Average of 16 ranking in Coaches Poll, Sportsnetwork Poll, and NCAA GPI (computer ranking) - 2% even with two AQ wins, because that almost automatically devalues the strength of those games in the so-called minds of the pollsters, "how good could they be if they lost to Albany?"). Only if both teams we beat also win their conference titles do we have a shot.

 

Combining the tests gives about a 0.3% shot at the playoffs.

 

And if we don't get the conditional-auto, I wouldn't count on an at-large because 'we already failed to qualify by the standards given' - nobody outside the top 20 is going to get an at-large.

 

If would be nice if the NEC wins enough OOC to pass the MEAC in the league rankings