Closure of the OOC Schedule- A Review and Look Ahead to CAA play

[Dane96]

So, at the end of the out of conference stretch, we are exactly where we should be at 2-2.

Couple of things to discuss:

1. Winston is a massive loss for us, quite frankly we would have a dominating secondary in the CAA if he was playing.  So, from the OOC, this is the biggest negative.  

2. Hall is absolutely special...what a lockdown corner.

3. Show me a better DL in the CAA, and I will listen...but question it.  We are dominant up front.

4. Poff- I am not concerned, but a bit worried.  It started with the Hawaii game and continued vs. Morgan St.  He has made some "wtf are you doing plays".  He is a gunslinger, it comes with the territory.  Honestly, if he played better vs. Hawaii we may have won.  Yesterday, tough game to judge due to the weather.  However, I think he needs to take a breath and manage the game a bit more as we start the CAA season.  The CAA is looking better than expected this year and right out of the gate, 'Nova is going to test him.  If he dials it back just a bit with the forcing of passes and, at times, just throwing the ball away instead of scrambling to extend a play...he will be just fine.  But he will be tested, and tested strongly next weekend. If he gets back to the Poff we know, we will be very good.

5. Not sure how I feel about Aden.  Frankly, I think he's the #2 RB at this point and by seasons end, Larkins or Woodell will be the starter, which I am not sure is a good thing.   Aden takes a lot of time getting to the hole, seems to be slow twitching.  Woodell and Larkins are VERY good #2's and I think Woodell will be a very, very good four year player...just not a top CAA RB.  It's the first time in a long-time that we haven't had a clearly dominant RB.  It's a negative of the offense.

6. Marshall- is looking to be sharing the top of a really crowded heap of the Sun Belt.  The top teams are in the East, plus Troy in the West.  The Sun Belt is the top G5 conference this year, and it's not even close.  Our performance at Marshall is not only encouraging, but also indicates what can happen with the transfer portal, using it wisely.  We hit the portal and did very well.  Marshall just took down an average Va Tech team...but they are likely mid-pack ACC...and that's nothing to stick your nose up.  

7. Hawaii- the team will rue this loss, and should.  This game was winnable.  However, take pride in this as well...anyone making that trip knows it is not easy.  Hawaii is interesting...they got smoked at Oregon...but Colorado was smoked equally as badly.  Vanderbilt is a terrible SEC team this year, however they are an SEC team...and Hawaii played them tough. They lost to Stanford, who is an absolute $iena of a football team.  They skated by an absolutely atrocious New Mexico State team, however Hawaii is saddled with injuries.  In short, Hawaii is trash compared to Marshall however, they are an FBS team...and quite frankly, I think Albany is at the same level this year...we would be a 115-133 ranked FBS team, which is exactly what the top of FCS would be on a normal year; capable of beating those lower FBS teams.

8. Fordham- hasn't played anyone of value but for Buffalo, and Albany would beat Buffalo this year...maybe even running away.  Buffalo is trash this season.  Not sure how to evaluate the Fordham win...meaning, how good Albany really can be.

9. Morgan St- irrespective of the weather, that is an insanely tough, athletic, and well coached football team with really good players.  They would be mid-pack CAA, no doubt in my mind, anywhere from 8-12 in the conference.  I do think we are better than them, which brings me to my next view:

10. Right now, we are probably anywhere from 6-12 in the league, dependent on all the above items.  I think our realistic "bottom" is 11.  I think our realistic top is 4.  We can go higher if Poff puts it together, we figure out a running back, and we get continued dominance from our Defense.

The Villanova game sets the tone for the entirety of the CAA season.  A win, catapults us in so many ways...a loss...is recoverable, however we'd have a tough road.  

I am going with a win for 'Nova, due to home cooking and being positive.  With that, this is what I see"

Nova- Close W

Towson- W

UNH- Close L 50-50

URI- Close L, potential for W if the defense balls out...they have a heck of an offense

Maine- W, if we bus up there early...it kills every team.  But Maine is REALLY bad this year. 

W&M- Close L

SBU- W

Monmouth- W

Puts us at 5-3.  I can see us going 6-2 or 4-4.  This would put us at 7-5 (and depending on how Marshall, Hawaii, and Fordham finishing, potentially as the last OOC team in the playoffs).  If we are 8-4, we are in with the schedule.  6-6, clearly out.  However, all the above are light years about last year.  That said, this team IS CAPABLE of going 9-3.  

[MRuler 79]

I agree on most of your points. I think the db who got hurt at Marshall is a bad loss. That’s why I hate playing the FBS teams. I know he could have gotten hurt against any team. They need Alexander back in the lineup this week. Need more production out of the OL. The DEFENSE this year is lights out!!! Best unit on the team. The db who got hurt should apply for a medical redshirt and come back next season.

I think the level of competition and the bad weather last night helped in making Poff look human. Also Morgan State is a much better team than people realize(still crazed over not taking a knee last night) . When the weather was nice against Fordham he played lights out. He should be fine. 

if we can squeeze a win out against Nova that will propel this team. I don’t think Rhody is as good as advertised. Wm n Mary is good but maybe not as good as people think. 
 

just win baby