DanesRGood

Offense is struggling hard right now. Can't buy a bucket!

Yale on fire a bit from three and mostly with guys in their face.

Rough start but overall I think they are playing pretty well.  Up 5 with 3 to go in the half.

1 hour ago, catbob said:

I noticed Albany gets a ton of TFLs, and forced fumbles.  The DL isn't all that big so I'm guessing they are extremely active and attempt to jump gaps with twists, stunts, etc..  Is that an accurate assessment?

You almost need to treat MSU like a triple option team.  You need to be extremely gap sound.  If an DL or LB twists or stunts into the wrong gap I mean you're talking a huge gain for MSU.  Honestly that is the #1 reason we've beat our rival Montana 4 years in a row, is because they do a ton of post-snap movement and we exploit that to the max.  We've beaten them 4 years in a row.  I mean we've only throw the ball for a combined 395 yards in 4 games, not a single TD or interception thrown (isn't that a crazy stat?).  But we've rushed for something like 330 yards a game over that span.  MSU is a bad matchup for UM who runs a very aggressive defense and thrives on post-snap movement and letting their two stud LB clean up the mess, because we have the personnel, scheme and coaching staff (in game adjustments) who can take advantage.

It'll be an interesting matchup, to see if Albany can create those TFLs or if MSU can exploit Albany's scheme.

I don't think we run a ton of stunts but there is some post snap movement as your coach described in his press conference of switching gaps after the snap. I think our DBs do a good job of making tackles on outside rushes and the LBs can get through the line a good bit to tackle in the backfield but I think a lot of the TFLs are one of the D linemen just beating his man by shooting a gap with some quickness. But as you can see in the stats I posted above they have let up some big rushing days.  5 times this season the opposing team went for 186 or more yards but also, as said before, really seem to tighten up well inside the redzone.  CCSU ran for 199 but couldn't get the ball in the endzone and ended up with only 14 pts. The second TD was in the 4th quarter when it was 42-7.

I clipped to the point where your coach talks about the dline.  He's pretty spot on with his assessment.  Not a ton of blitzes.

Run those slants and then pump fake them into this.... Second tweet below.  Not sure why it keeps posting both.....
 

3 hours ago, catbob said:

MSU certainly has some weaknesses.  On defense they just aren't glaring.  Our biggest weakness when you look at it statistically is certainly pass yardage given up, but MSU has played the #1, #6, #17, #15, #23 and #26 rated passing offenses in the country in terms of yards per game, in addition to Texas Tech.  But of course 3 of those were losses - Texas Tech, #26 UND and #15 Sac State.  But defense wasn't the problem at UND, as we only gave up 16 points and 7 of those were a blocked punt TD (the other TD was a trick play). But If we're looking at yards per game, Albany would be 8th in the Big Sky (but first in TD passes).  This to me means Albany takes huge advantage of turnovers forced and must start with pretty good field position. 

As statistically good as our rushing defense looks, it has been vulnerable at times as well when we are too focused on stopping the pass.  And we will give up some yardage through the air if we can't get to Undercuffler, teams have had some success throwing against us in terms of yards but like I said points are another matter entirely, we're giving up just 21.5 PPG and that includes 45 to Texas Tech.  Our tackling has been suspect at times throughout the year but again that has really cleaned up since the Sac State loss, a lot more gang tackling now.

Offensively obviously the weakness is throwing the ball, but Tucker Rovig has improved game by game.  He went through a rough patch midway through the season (only like his 4th-7th career starts) but his last two games have been the best of his career IMO.  Against UCD he was 17/25 for 217 yards, and against UM he was 7/11 in the first half for 102 yards, and only attempted 2 passes in the 2nd half (both incomplete).  MSU will throw the ball early simply to show you that we can and that you better not sell out completely to the run.  If the run game is getting shut down don't look for MSU to all of the sudden become a pass happy team - we ran our way back from a 31-14 3rd quarter deficit against NAU and won 49-31, at one point running the ball 22 straight times, even with a 3 score deficit.  The OL has given up some big sacks so there is another potential weakness - we thrive on 3rd and short, if we are forced into 3rd and long we are not good and our 3rd down % reflects that.

The other potential weakness is that sometimes our offensive playcalling gets... boxed in as Choate called it when things don't go well.  We abandon some of the stuff that is working, but honestly it was a huge emphasis after the UND game and it really hasn't been an issue since then, playcalling has been much better and creative, but certainly could rear it's ugly head again.

Special teams are solid all the way around, kicker is a bit inconsistent but can boot it from 50+.  Coverage is very solid and we have one of the best FCS punters in the country.

Thanks for the insight catbob.  Interesting read.

1 hour ago, HOF2013 said:

First, "Built up Albany more than deserved.."  ??????????? Picked to finish last and ended up 2nd in the league... beat 5 ranked teams (when we played them and a couple who were ranked all year). And this from a UA fan..... really.  Don't agree with US not good against the run.  There have been a few games when we gave up too much yardage but we stopped them when it mattered AND we have shut a couple of good run teams down.   Seem to have a tougher time against a Running QB who can really fake as LB's, as your coach said, come up inside quickly - don't get back to the outside running QB after the fake.  Could have an issue with wildcat QB.  Against a team that seldom passes a few def. changes could stop that.  We'll have to see.

Yes, we've had a great season and I believe we are a very good team BUT did you watch the press conference?  The MSU coach made us sound like the best team in the country. The posters on the MSU board even said, "Wait until Monday when our coach makes your team sound like the greatest ever." or something like that.  They weren't kidding. He names basically every player and said a number of them can play in the NFL. I think he just exaggerated a bit. That's all.  I was NOT taking a shot at our team. 

As for the rushing defense, it ranked 47th in FCS and allowed almost 150 yards per game.  That's not good.  We do however make big plays when it counts in the red zone, which you are correct about and where we rank 23rd in Red Zone Defense.  We talk about it all the time, bend but don't break. MSU is one of the best rushing offenses in the country against an average rush defense. It will be tough but not impossible!

Rushing Yards by game:

CMU - 244

Bryant - 120

Monmounth - 190

Lafayette - 94

WM - 184

Richmond - 121

Towson - 93 

URI - 144

Maine - 169

Delaware - 225

UNH - 106

SBU - 100

CCSU - 199

That is not that good. It's not TERRIBLE but not good.

Who let these guys in here?!?! Ban them all!!!

😋  Kidding MSU fans.  Welcome aboard and glad to read your thoughts.  This will definitely be a tough task for the Danes on the road in front of a big/loud crowd against what seems to be a very very tough team.  

Question for you. Do teams often "stack the box" to try and stop the run and are just unsuccessful because of all the running schemes that MSU runs? It really seems from the stats that the passing game is not that good but that may just be because the running game seems so good or as you said in your post, MSU doesn't need to pass in the second half when up big and the run is working. Our defense is not great against the run so this may be a tough situation for UA.

The UA coaches need to somehow figure out how to slow down the run (probably not going to stop it) and force your QB into passing situations, let Mencer and the other boys up front attack the QB and try and force some turnovers.  I said it an earlier post that if we can win the turnover battle I think we have a shot to win the game.  That will be hard to do from the stats I've seen but I think it's probably the best if not the only path to victory.

Another question, I've read a bunch of posts on your forum and your posts here. What are MSUs weakness?  From the posts I've read, they have all been about all the great things MSU does (don't take that the wrong way) but I want to hear what you, the fans who have watched most if not all the games, think are the biggest weaknesses.  Is it the passing game? Is it pass defense? Is it special teams? Secondary? WRs? QB? Every team has them.

Last point, I enjoyed your coaches press conference. He seems like a real football guy and was impressed by the jersey numbers and stats he was pulling out. I know he had notes he was looking at but seemed he had most of it on the tip of his tongue and not just reading off the paper.  Impressive. He did however build up UA a lot more than deserved. And someone's comment about the armory ad was more about how it would never be on anything in NY. I think it was just a comment on the differences in culture between the states and not a shot at anyone. 

Thanks for joining and looking forward to a fun week of build up and hopefully a hard fought game on Saturday.

Looks like the team will practice inside tomorrow. 

https://www.timesunion.com/sports/article/UAlbany-football-challenged-by-snowstorm-14875543.php

3 minutes ago, Eli said:

I stopped watching when he said at 2:22 that we don't get penalized a lot and don't shoot ourselves in the foot. Like their fans saying all we do is throw slants, this guy is clueless. We were ranked 8th out of 12 CAA teams in penalties, averaging 52.3 a game. Granted we got the opposing team to average 62 penalty yards a game.

Hopefully he's that asleep at the wheel on Saturday lol.

Also, lol @ the sponsorship shoutout at the beginning. You'd never hear that in this stupid state. Way go to Montana!

They said on their site that their coach would make us sound like the Patriots in his press conference and boy were they right.  WE ARE THE GREATEST TEAM IN THE HISTORY OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL!!!  hahahahaaaa...

Some of what he said was right on.  Our two wideouts are excellent and JU is playing with a lot of confidence and has cut down on the stupid throws. Mofor is a bowling ball who can run people over. Some of the other stuff was just fluff to talk up the opponent so maybe his team doesn't take us lightly.  Who knows why he does it. 

33 minutes ago, UAalum72 said:

I have no idea which one will show up Saturday but stop their run and Albany wins. 

That's what I said! Stack the box, run blitzes, force them to beat us through the air. 

On 12/1/2019 at 1:18 PM, DanesRGood said:

										
	Passing Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	PASS ATT	PASS COM	INT	PASS YDS	YDS/ATT	YDS/COMP	PASS TD	YPG
33	Albany (NY)	13	435	247	9	3316	7.62	13.43	39	255.1
105	Montana St.	12	304	172	4	1990	6.55	11.57	14	165.8
										
	Passing Yards Allowed									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP CPL	OPP PASS	OPP PASS <BR/>YDS	OPP PASS <BR/>TDS	YDS/ATT	YDS/COMP	YPG	
46	Albany (NY)	13	228	382	2712	21	7.1	11.89	208.6	
85	Montana St.	12	281	438	2864	15	6.54	10.19	238.7	
										
	Rushing Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP RUSH	OPP RUSH YDS	YDS/RUSH	OPP RUSH TDS	YPG			
17	Montana St.	12	414	1440	3.48	17	120			
47	Albany (NY)	13	502	1926	3.84	15	148.2			
										
	Rushing Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	RUSH	RUSH YDS	YDS/RUSH	RUSH TD	YPG			
6	Montana St.	12	549	3241	5.9	39	270.1			
82	Albany (NY)	13	426	1780	4.18	12	136.9			
										
	Sacks Allowed									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP SACKS	OPP SACK YDS	AVG					
10	Montana St.	12	13	85	1.08					
76	Albany (NY)	13	31	196	2.38					
										
	Total Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	PLAYS	YDS	YDS/PLAY	OFF TDS	OPP TDS	YPG		
38	Albany (NY)	13	884	4638	5.25	36	39	356.8		
40	Montana St.	12	852	4304	5.05	32	35	358.7		
										
	Team Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	PLAYS	YDS	YDS/PLAY	OFF TDS	YPG			
19	Montana St.	12	853	5231	6.13	53	435.9			
53	Albany (NY)	13	861	5096	5.92	51	392			
										

 

It does look pretty even but out of all the stats I posted, these are the ones that stand out to me.  Again, this is all from stats and some highlights I've watched and I'm not a scout or analyst so I may be way off.

It seems their offensive and defensive lines are both excellent. They've only allowed 13 sacks and have 6th best rushing offense in FCS but are 105th in passing offense.  Looks like we might have to stack the box and hope our DBs can hold their coverage well.   On the other side of the ball their run defense is really good (17th in FCS) and they can get to the QB (19th in sacks in FCS) but their pass defense is mediocre (85th in FCS in passing yards allowed). 

So I think if we can be really aggressive in run defense and slow that down a bit while on offense getting some rushing yards and being very aggressive in the passing game we will have a shot. As I said earlier I think we have to win the turnover battle.  Cause some fumbles, grab an INT, make some special teams plays.

Again, take this for what it is.  Stats can obviously be misleading and gameplan/gameday adjustments will make a difference but most of the time the stats say who you are. 

I think if we are going to pull off an upset creating turnovers is going to play a key role. We have forced 27 turnovers this season in 13 games.  That is pretty damn good and if you look at the games we've won turnovers have played a big part. Even in the Central Mich game, we were in the game because of the turnovers we forced (Forced 3, gave up 1) and some nice passes by Undercuffler. At Monmouth, we lost and forced 2 but had 5 turnovers. At Richmond lost the game and the turnover battle 2-0. Against Maine we lost the game and lost the turnover battle 3-1.  I won't go into the wins but we forced 6 turnovers in our 4 losses so that leaves 21 turnovers in 9 wins.

MSU is a tough team from what I've read and from the stats.  They are tough against the run and can pressure the QB a good bit. I know they say their secondary is bigger and faster than what we've seen but I'm confident Green and Reeves have shown they can get open against anyone (see Central Michigan game). My biggest worry is they contain Mofor and are able to get good pressure on Undercuffler to throw off the passing game. This is where the turnovers are going to be big.  They have only turned the ball over 9 times the whole season.  Only 4 INTs but they had 131 less passing attempts than UA this season and ranked 81st in FCS in passing. 

That's pretty funny.  I guess SOS means nothing and watching one game tells you everything you need to know about a team. No need to compare SOS or stats.  I think it will be closer than they think but I'm also not confident we can beat them. 

22 minutes ago, UAalum72 said:

Massey picks MSU by 8 points, gives us 24% chance. Their SOS is 152, ours 164, so not as big a difference as most have been talking. (Sagarin SOS 164 vs 169)

That's interesting on the SOS since on their site it seems they think they've played a much harder schedule.

I just hope for a good game that we have a chance and ultimately win at the end.  

Forgot to add Green had 1263 yards receiving (4th in FCS) and 16 TDs (1st in FCS) as well as Reeves with 886 yards and 6 TDs.

Their leading WR has 671 yards and 3 TDs. 

I don't mean this in a bad way because they are obviously a VERY good team but seem very one dimensional on offense according to the season stats. Have to try to force them to pass the ball. I'm sure every team has tried it so easier said than done. 

Fun little exercise to compare the teams. I'm no Eli so I couldn't really get things to line up.

Some things to note. They are a very heavy run first team. We passed a lot more than them this season. 
3316 yards passing for us vs 1990 for them.  Rushing yards 3241 for them vs 1780 for us. 
We do have the 9th best rusher yards wise in FCS where as they use much more of a RB by committee approach. 

UA
Mofor: 1239
James: 593

MSU
Logan Jones: 788
Isaiah Infanse: 518
Travis Jonsen: 432


I keep reading on their site that they will get heavy ammounts of pressure on Undercuffler. 
That might happen but I was expecting better sack stats than 17th in the country from what I was reading. 
Only two more sacks than we got all season.

They have Bryce Stark who had 13.5 sacks this year, another guy with 6.5 sacks and 33 overall sacks as a team.  
We have Mencer with 14.5 and 31 total as a team.	

I'll let you guys analyze the rest...

	3rd Down Conversion Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP 3RD CONV	OPP 3RD ATT	PCT					
3	Albany (NY)	13	53	178	0.298					
50	Montana St.	12	68	185	0.368					 
										
	Completion Percentage									
RANK	TEAM	G	PASS COM	PASS ATT	PCT					
80	Albany (NY)	13	247	435	0.568					
81	Montana St.	12	172	304	0.566					
										
	Defensive TDs									
RANK	TEAM	G	FUM RET TDS	INT RET TDS	TDS					
5	Albany (NY)	13	3	1	4					
	Montana St.	12	0	0	0					
										
	Fewest Penalties									
RANK	TEAM	G	PENALTIES	PYARDS						
35	Montana St.	12	63	547						
89	Albany (NY)	13	84	653						
										
	Fumbles Lost									
RANK	TEAM	G	FUM LOST							
14	Montana St.	12	5							
102	Albany (NY)	13	11							
										
	Fumbles Recovered									
RANK	TEAM	G	FUM REC							
2	Albany (NY)	13	16							
41	Montana St.	12	9							
										
	Passes Had Intercepted									
RANK	TEAM	G	PASS ATT	INT						
2	Montana St.	12	304	4						
34	Albany (NY)	13	435	9						
										
	Passes Intercepted									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP PASS	OPP INT	INT RET YDS	INT RET TDS				
46	Albany (NY)	13	382	11	180	1				
64	Montana St.	12	438	10	91	0				
										
	Passing Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	PASS ATT	PASS COM	INT	PASS YDS	YDS/ATT	YDS/COMP	PASS TD	YPG
33	Albany (NY)	13	435	247	9	3316	7.62	13.43	39	255.1
105	Montana St.	12	304	172	4	1990	6.55	11.57	14	165.8
										
	Passing Yards Allowed									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP CPL	OPP PASS	OPP PASS <BR/>YDS	OPP PASS <BR/>TDS	YDS/ATT	YDS/COMP	YPG	
46	Albany (NY)	13	228	382	2712	21	7.1	11.89	208.6	
85	Montana St.	12	281	438	2864	15	6.54	10.19	238.7	
										
	Red Zone Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP RZATT	OPP RZ RUSH TD	OPP RZ PASS TD	OPP RZ FG MADE	OPP RZSCORES	PCT		
23	Albany (NY)	13	39	11	11	7	29	0.744		
53	Montana St.	12	35	15	9	4	28	0.8		
										
	Redzone Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	RZATT	RZ RUSH TD	RZ PASS TD	RZ FG MADE	RZSCORES	PCT		
10	Montana St.	12	52	32	8	7	47	0.904		
33	Albany (NY)	13	52	11	25	8	44	0.846		
										
	Rushing Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP RUSH	OPP RUSH YDS	YDS/RUSH	OPP RUSH TDS	YPG			
17	Montana St.	12	414	1440	3.48	17	120			
47	Albany (NY)	13	502	1926	3.84	15	148.2			
										
	Rushing Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	RUSH	RUSH YDS	YDS/RUSH	RUSH TD	YPG			
6	Montana St.	12	549	3241	5.9	39	270.1			
82	Albany (NY)	13	426	1780	4.18	12	136.9			
										
	Sacks Allowed									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP SACKS	OPP SACK YDS	AVG					
10	Montana St.	12	13	85	1.08					
76	Albany (NY)	13	31	196	2.38					
										
	Scoring Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	TDS	OPP XP	2PT	OPP DXP	OPP FGM	OPP SAF	PTS	AVG
23	Montana St.	12	35	33	0	0	5	0	258	21.5
35	Albany (NY)	13	39	36	1	0	12	1	310	23.8
										
	Scoring Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	TDS	PAT	2PT	DEF PTS	FG	SAF	PTS	PPG
21	Central Conn. St.	13	60	53	3	0	7	0	440	33.8
22	Montana St.	12	53	51	0	0	12	0	405	33.8
31	Albany (NY)	13	56	50	1	0	10	0	418	32.2
										
	Team Passing Efficiency									
RANK	TEAM	G	PASS ATT	PASS COM	INT	PASS YDS	PASS TD	PASS EFF		
27	Albany (NY)	13	435	247	9	3316	39	146.26		
81	Montana St.	12	304	172	4	1990	14	124.13		
										
	Team Passing Efficiency Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	OPP PASS	OPP CPL	OPP INT	OPP PASS <BR/>YDS	OPP PASS <BR/>TDS	PASS EFF		
41	Montana St.	12	438	281	10	2864	15	125.82		
62	Albany (NY)	13	382	228	11	2712	21	131.7		
										
	Team Sacks									
RANK	TEAM	G	SACKS	SACK YDS	AVG					
19	Montana St.	12	33	215	2.75					
42	Albany (NY)	13	31	185	2.38					
										
	Total Defense									
RANK	TEAM	G	PLAYS	YDS	YDS/PLAY	OFF TDS	OPP TDS	YPG		
38	Albany (NY)	13	884	4638	5.25	36	39	356.8		
40	Montana St.	12	852	4304	5.05	32	35	358.7		
										
	Team Offense									
RANK	TEAM	G	PLAYS	YDS	YDS/PLAY	OFF TDS	YPG			
19	Montana St.	12	853	5231	6.13	53	435.9			
53	Albany (NY)	13	861	5096	5.92	51	392			
										
	Turnover Margin									
RANK	TEAM	G	FUM REC	OPP INT	TURN GAIN	FUM LOST	INT	TURN LOST	MARGIN	AVG
14	Montana St.	12	9	10	19	5	4	9	10	0.83
26	Albany (NY)	13	16	11	27	11	9	20	7	0.54

1 hour ago, DanesRGood said:

 

Let them talk and bash away. Hopefully the team will shut them all up come Saturday. Mofor didn't have a great game today but did lead the conference in rushing yards. Green leads FCS in receiving TDs, JU broke the record for TDs by a freshman, Mencer had 12.5 sacks, etc.  Our team is good and that should be our focus.  Let them talk!

Have to correct myself. Mencer has 14.5 sacks. 

Funny reading through the whole thread for the first time just now. Glad they pulled out the victory.  Sucks that they got down big but glad they came back.  Didn't get a chance to see the game though. 

DanePound, some of their fans are trying to create accounts.  Let them in!

1 hour ago, HOF2013 said:

I read their game time forum.  They think we are slow, no run game and throw only slants and Jeff will be on his back all day....... And they will pound us.  Maybe, but...... I agree with JIMBO!

 

Let them talk and bash away. Hopefully the team will shut them all up come Saturday. Mofor didn't have a great game today but did lead the conference in rushing yards. Green leads FCS in receiving TDs, JU broke the record for TDs by a freshman, Mencer had 12.5 sacks, etc.  Our team is good and that should be our focus.  Let them talk!

First opportunity to post since the game.  Had a couple family members over for decorating Christmas tree.  Game on the TV on mute and christmas music on the speakers.  I was nervous after the first quarter. I think the TD drive at the end of the first half really provided them, especially JU. CCSU LBs were doing a really good job of sitting off the line and tipping balls over the middle.  JU had some awesome pump fakes in the second half that sprung  couple of the long TDs.  Also, they ran my favorite TE pass play for a TD as well.

Just really happy for the players and staff.  I hope they play this way next week and can come home with a win!

This is only my opinion and many may disagree. I think the biggest difference this year is having a good QB!!!  The defense has been decent to very good over the years. The running game has been good to very good (last year not great) over the years but the passing game has been a mess. No more!  THAT to me is the biggest difference. 

I'm thankful for DP running this place!  Happy Thanksgiving to all! 

Me going after dessert tomorrow...

Congrats to all!!  Good to see Undercuffler win the OROY and the all-conference players. Congrats to coach!