Thoughts On Monmouth and CCSU

[Ruler]

Myself and two buddies (Ron Putelo former Great Dane DE in the 80's and his buddy who went to Monmouth) made the voyage to south Jersey on Saturday. Yes the fear of rain was there but we got lucky. The wind was cold but so was the beer. Thanks Ronnie!

 

I have to say this was the best Special Teams outing I have ever witnessed as a player and fan/alumni. What a contrast from the opening game. I don't know if our punter is back next year (I hope he is) but this kid deserves player of the game!!!! He bailed our asses out of many jams including a 70 yarder that pinned Monmouth on their own 1 yard line to set up the saftey. The place went nuts and that was IMHO was when the tide turned for us in the game. Just for the record Fralicker's 40 yarder was KICKED INTO THE WIND!!!!!!! I thought to myself he won't make this with the wind and I have never been more thrilled to be wrong. Well done kid! Even the guy from Mon. was stunned by the conversion! Then Wall's blocked punt. Uncle Mo was on our side from their out

 

Defense played out of their minds on Saturday. They have never been better and they need to be again next week because I am very concerned about our O. They have given up 11 sacks in two games. McCarty is as always a workhorse and wore down Monmouth eventually. Make no mistake the Monmouth D held their own against us for all but about 8 plays. Vinny was lobbing passes that took an hour to reach their target and they did not look sharp or crisp. He looked tenative to throw. It reminded me of last year with dropped balls and penalties and sacks. They won in spite of 2 fumbles and a pick. THAT SAYS A WHOLE BUNCH ABOUT THEIR WILL TO WIN!!!!! Fordie's post game was accurate when he stated they had to play through adversity which is a great thing.

 

I don't know if Monmouth's D was that good or our O did not play well. I can tell these kids believe they will win out and that is also a great thing. I believe CCSU will be charged up for Sat but I believe these kids will be better and I don't think that this game will be as close. If Vinny can be sharper and get more pocket roll outs called we should be fine. This is the game we have been waiting for. Unfortunatly I have tickets for Ohio State and Michigan in the BIG HOUSE this week and will be unable to attend. I will have my Blackberry and will get the score.

 

GO UA!!!!! Finish what you started!

[danefan]

A couple of quick observations.....

1. The sacks are not all blocking problems. Espo has been holding the ball too long looking for the big gains downfield. A number of times he got sacked on Sat he had check-down routes wide open and never looked.

 

2. Lynch....unbelievable punt (70yds and out at 1/2 yd line!) That allowed the safety which really turned the momentum in our favor.

 

Next week:

 

CCSU will be ready. I don't think they are as good as us, but it all depends on how our O plays. If we can put 21 up we will win.

[danefan]

Update on current playoff situation:

 

The following teams have clinched auto-bids:

Montana

UNI

Del St

EKU

Fordham

Wofford

McNeese St

 

Richmond or UMass (this weekend's games will determine the tie-breaker for the CAA auto-qual, but both will go to the playoffs anyway).

 

 

 

here are next week's games involving the remaining at-large playoff contenders:

 

 

UMass (8-2) @ Hofstra (7-3)

 

Delaware (8-2) @ Villanova (6-4)

 

Towson (3-7) @ JMU (7-3)

 

W&M (4-6) @ Richmond (8-2)

 

SIU (9-1) @ Hampton (6-4)

 

Winston-Salem (6-4) @ Norfolk St (7-3)

 

Colgate (7-3) @ Holy Cross (6-4)

 

UTC (2-8) @ ASU (8-2)

 

GSU (7-3) @ Colorado St (1-8)

 

Alabama A&M (8-2) @ Praire View (6-3)

 

Samford (4-6) @ EIU (7-3)

 

Weber St (5-5) @ EWU (7-3)

 

Albany (7-3) @ CCSU (6-4)

 

Dayton is idle.

 

--------------------

Its very unlikely and rare that 7-4 teams get an at-large.

IMO, for us to have any shot, we MUST WIN and four or five of the following 7-3 teams have to lose:

 

EIU

EWU

Norfolk St

Colgate

JMU

GSU

Hofstra

 

I guess best case scenario for us is for Hofstra and Colgate to win and everyone else to lose. Then our three losses will be to teams that most likely get at-large bids and one win over another playoff team. Put that resume against a 7-4 team and we have a chance.

[Ruler]

If Hofstra and Colgate win I think that hurts our chances. They both beat us and that would eliminate us. We need as many 7-3 teams to lose as possible. Don't we?

[danefan]

If Hofstra and Colgate win I think that hurts our chances. They both beat us and that would eliminate us. We need as many 7-3 teams to lose as possible. Don't we?

 

 

yes, i agree, if all 7-3 teams lose, we have a better shot. But its a catch-22 to an extent. We want Hofstra & Colgate in the playoffs because we lost to them, but we don't want the choice to come down to us, Hofstra or Colgate, because then we obviously lose. Honestly, the only we I see us getting in, is if Hofstra and Colgate get in and the rest of the bubble teams are 7-4 and we're at 8-3.

[danefan]

Ruler you were right...I'm revising what I want to happen:

 

The Autoqualifiers:

 

1Montana

2UNI

3Del St

4EKU

5Fordham

6Wofford

7McNeese St

8UMASS(assuming a win vs Hofstra)

 

At Large:

 

Locks:

 

9Delaware

10Richmond

11SIU

12App State

 

In(assuming wins):

13JMU(home vs 3-7 Towson)

14EIU(home vs 4-6 Samford)

15EWU(home vs 5-5 Weber St)

 

Georgia Southern loss.

Hofstra Loss

Colgate Loss....

 

That leaves us with:

 

Hofstra would be 7-4

New Hampshire at 7-4

Alabama A & M at 9-2 (with a very weak schedule and a third-place in the SWAC)

Colgate at 7-4

Norfolk State at 8-3 (with a weak schedule)

Albany at 8-3

Dayton at 10-1 (with a weak schedule and a bad loss)

 

I think it comes down to:

 

Us against UNH. That's our best chance, because the committee doesn't like 7-4 teams and no conference has ever had 5 teams get bids. UNH would be the CAA's fifth.

[Ruler]

So let me get this straight. We need 6 teams to lose and we need to win and then it will be down to a coin -flip for a berth? WOW! The ultimate Hail Mary!!!!

 

I KNEW COLGATE WOULD HAUNT US!

 

JUST WIN SAT!!!!! I actually want to see us up against Dayton.

[danefan]

So let me get this straight. We need 6 teams to lose and we need to win and then it will be down to a coin -flip for a berth? WOW! The ultimate Hail Mary!!!!

 

I KNEW COLGATE WOULD HAUNT US!

 

JUST WIN SAT!!!!! I actually want to see us up against Dayton.

 

 

hahaha. yes. that's about right. But its better than not being in the mix at all.

 

Without the loss to Colgate, we'd really only need about three teams to lose. Oh well.

 

I'm taking the Danes by 17 on Saturday! Central hasn't run the ball very well this year and quite frankly, I think they looked slow and poorly conditioned against Monmouth.

[haggyland]

I'm taking the Danes by 17 on Saturday!

 

I can't bet against the alma mater, but if you were to throw in the half-point to 17.5 I might be enticed to wager for a hot dog at one of the basketball games.

 

Anyways, here's to Phelan being open in the end zone on the Hail Mary!

Go Danes!

[danefan]

I'm taking the Danes by 17 on Saturday!

 

I can't bet against the alma mater, but if you were to throw in the half-point to 17.5 I might be enticed to wager for a hot dog at one of the basketball games.

 

Anyways, here's to Phelan being open in the end zone on the Hail Mary!

Go Danes!

 

 

eww....pesimissm. jk

 

Believe it or not, I actually think my prediction is conservative.

[haggyland]

Believe it or not, I actually think my prediction is conservative.

 

Conference rival, on the road, in a battle for first place?

You call it pessimism, I call it prudence.

 

But, yes, a blow-out by UA would be mighty fine....

[danefan]

Don't forget....I got shunned by some for a 3 TD prediction last week. I was only 3 points off!

 

I really think that we are that good.

 

I do wish we had an OOC game this week. Somebody pointed this out on AGS and I tend to agree with him. We should really push the NEC to allow some OOC games at the end of the season as well.

 

I'd love to be playing a PL or CAA team this week.

[haggyland]

I do wish we had an OOC game this week. Somebody pointed this out on AGS and I tend to agree with him. We should really push the NEC to allow some OOC games at the end of the season as well.

 

I'd love to be playing a PL or CAA team this week.

 

It would be nice to see what they could do now that the team is clicking.

[danefan]

I do wish we had an OOC game this week. Somebody pointed this out on AGS and I tend to agree with him. We should really push the NEC to allow some OOC games at the end of the season as well.

 

I'd love to be playing a PL or CAA team this week.

 

It would be nice to see what they could do now that the team is clicking.

 

And it will help with at-large consideration. Our league affiliation is killing us. NEC to 45 rides and soon!!!!!!!

[Ruler]

Screw 45 give us 63!