Season Predictions

[Zalman B]

Albany

 

Predicting great things for Albany. According to his numbers, we are the underdog in only 3 of our remaining games -

 

We have a 1% chance to win at Duke.

We have a 40% chance to win at Iowa St.

We have a 32% chance to win at UMBC.

 

Honestly, some of the numbers seem incredible (like the almost-lock win (95%) over UVM at SEFCU), but at least they are incredible in their amount of respect for UA, instead of by selling the team short.

 

The overall Projected Record** for UA is 20-8, 13-3 in conference.

 

The other conference teams (in descending order of Projected conference wins)

UMBC 22-7, 13-3

UNH 17-11, 10-6

Hartford 14-17, 8-8

Maine 13-16, 7-9

BU 9-19, 7-9

UVM 10-18, 6-10

Stony Brook 9-19, 5-11

Binghamton 6-22, 4-12 (They're only favored in one game for the rest of the season, home vs. Stony Brook (51%))

 

**Projected record is based on chances of winning, and therefore may not conform to the

cumulative game-by-game predictions. This accounts for the unexpected results that

will inevitably happen during the season.

 

Obviously take it with a huge grain of salt, but it might be good for some discussion at least.

[alum73]

It can change after each game is plated, so you have to keep up with it.

[Zalman B]

Thanks alum, I didn't realize that. I'll try to keep current with at least the general trends so we can have some record of how things changed.

 

So you think if we knock off Duke at Duke, we might become a favorite at UMBC?

[Zalman B]

A tough road loss at Delaware makes us an "underdog" in a 4th game - 41% at UNH.

 

New Projections (Albany)

18-10, 12-4 in conference.

 

Other updates

UMBC lost to Wichita St. on the road on 12/4, 77-68.

Old Projection - 22-7, 13-3

New Projection - 21-8, 12-4

 

UNH, no games played since 12/4, but a change.

Old Projection - 17-11, 10-6

New Projection - 18-10, 11-5

 

BU defeated Harvard at home on 12/4, 79-72.

Old Projection - 9-19, 7-9

New Projection - 11-17, 9-7

 

Hartford, no games played since 12/4, no change.

Projection - 14-7, 8-8

 

Maine, no games played since 12/4, no change.

Projection - 13-16, 7-9

 

Vermont, no games played since 12/4, no change.

Projection - 10-18, 6-10

 

Stony Brook fell to Lehigh on the road on 12/5, 76-61.

Old Projection - 9-19, 5-11

New Projection - 7-21, 4-12

 

Binghamton lost to Colgate at home on 12/5, 73-55.

Old Projection - 6-22, 4-12

New Projection - 5-23, 3-13

 

The battle between Binghamton and Stony Brook on 1/15 is still the only game where Bingo is favored, and following the loss of both Stony Brook and Bingo, Bingo's chance of winning has gone up to 57%.

[ALBANY ALUM '94]

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QUOTE(Zalman B @ Dec 6 2007, 09:26 PM) 28899[/snapback]

A tough road loss at Delaware makes us an "underdog" in a 4th game - 41% at UNH.

 

New Projections (Albany)

18-10, 12-4 in conference.

 

Other updates

UMBC lost to Wichita St. on the road on 12/4, 77-68.

Old Projection - 22-7, 13-3

New Projection - 21-8, 12-4

 

UNH, no games played since 12/4, but a change.

Old Projection - 17-11, 10-6

New Projection - 18-10, 11-5

 

BU defeated Harvard at home on 12/4, 79-72.

Old Projection - 9-19, 7-9

New Projection - 11-17, 9-7

 

Hartford, no games played since 12/4, no change.

Projection - 14-7, 8-8

 

Maine, no games played since 12/4, no change.

Projection - 13-16, 7-9

 

Vermont, no games played since 12/4, no change.

Projection - 10-18, 6-10

 

Stony Brook fell to Lehigh on the road on 12/5, 76-61.

Old Projection - 9-19, 5-11

New Projection - 7-21, 4-12

 

Binghamton lost to Colgate at home on 12/5, 73-55.

Old Projection - 6-22, 4-12

New Projection - 5-23, 3-13

 

The battle between Binghamton and Stony Brook on 1/15 is still the only game where Bingo is favored, and following the loss of both Stony Brook and Bingo, Bingo's chance of winning has gone up to 57%.

 

Don't we have to play the games to see who wins?

 

should I book my ticket to march madness as we breeze by UMBC?

 

I like the Bulls....like the term 3 peat !

[UA_MA_2000]

The UNH and Vermont projections are the ones that seem to glare right out at me as being suspect (not likely, etc.)? I would expect UVM to do better than 6-10 in the league, and I was under the impression that UNH lost some key players from last year; 11-5 for UNH seems like a stretch.

 

As far as we go, I would be thrilled with a 12-4 conference record! I figure our toughest games on the Conference schedule are at UMBC, at UVM, at Boston University, and at Bingo. And road games in the conference are always a battle. We gotta aim to hold serve at home, beat the teams that we should on the road, and snatch up a game or two from the foregoing four tough games I listed.

[UA_MA_2000]

If I'm reading this correctly, we're now projected to go 15-1 in the league, with our one loss coming to UMBC on the road:

 

http://www.kenpom.com/sked.php?team=Albany&t=p

[Zalman B]

If I'm reading this correctly, we're now projected to go 15-1 in the league, with our one loss coming to UMBC on the road:

 

http://www.kenpom.com/sked.php?team=Albany&t=p

 

We are "favored" in 15 of the 16 games, but the projected record in conference is 12-4.

 

"**Projected record is based on chances of winning, and therefore may not conform to the

cumulative game-by-game predictions. This accounts for the unexpected results that

will inevitably happen during the season."

[Zalman B]

Updates

Albany lost to St. Bonaventure on the road on 12/8, 58-54.

Old Projection - 18-10, 12-4 in conference.

New Projection - No change.

 

Other updates

UMBC defeated Groucher at home on 12/8, 82-37

UMBC lost to Central Connecticut on the road on 12/11, 58-54.

Old Projection - 21-8, 12-4

New Projection - 19-10, 11-5

 

UNH lost to Brown on the road on 12/6, 68-52.

UNH lost to Long Island at home on 12/10, 84-78.

Old Projection - 18-10, 11-5

New Projection - 15-13, 9-7

 

BU defeated Yale on the road on 12/11, 76-67.

Old Projection - 11-17, 9-7

New Projection - 12-16, 9-7

 

Hartford lost to North Texas on the road on 12/8, 105-97.

Hartford defeated Monmouth at home on 12/11, 67-53.

Old Projection - 14-7, 8-8

New Projection - 15-16, 9-7

 

Maine lost to Florida State on the road on 12/8, 95-55.

Old Projection - 13-16, 7-9

New Projection - 11-18, 6-10

 

Vermont lost to Yale on the road on 12/8, 86-76.

Old Projection - 10-18, 6-10

New Projection - 9-19, 6-10

 

Binghamton defeated George Washington at home on 12/13, 71-59.

Old Projection - 5-23, 3-13

New Projection - 9-19, 6-10

 

Stony Brook defeated NJIT at home on 12/10, 62-53.

Stony Brook defeated Hofstra on the road on 12/12, 77-74.

Old Projection - 7-21, 4-12

New Projection - 8-20, 5-11

[purplehaze]

The REAL season starts January 3. I can visualize a game at SEFCU Arena on March 15.