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UA & brook are #17 & 13 in media poll; and #15 & 14 in quints poll this am. With 2 games left (UA has a make-up with vmont; which I doubt will happen.) If UA & brook win out {with UA having the much easier remaining games), brook finishes 8-1, UA 6-2 w/o vmont make-up.  brook still has to play umbc & vmont.  vmont plays bingo & brook.  umbc brook & NJIT. umbc capable of beating brook, but IMHO vmont is not and in fact could lose @ bingo this Saturday. 

So my prognostication:  #1 brook 8-1 (7-2 @ worse);  #2/3 UA 6-2; #3/2 vmont 6-2 (possible 5-3); #4 umbc 6-3.  umbc would jump to #1 with a win @ home vs brook (and they already beat brook once.) UA & vmont drop to 4/3 or 3/4, probably no need to play make-up? 

Anyhow IF my prediction holds up "good" chance brook & UA could both go to NCAA if either of them win the tournament. I know a lot of IFs here and a lot could happen in final two weeks + tournaments. But with no IVY's, caa and patriot looking @ one bid each at this point, "good" chance AmEast could get two. [UA 2-1, brook 2-2 ooc.]

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4 hours ago, dslyank said:

UA & brook are #17 & 13 in media poll; and #15 & 14 in quints poll this am. With 2 games left (UA has a make-up with vmont; which I doubt will happen.) 

Coach Marr said, on Wyland's radio show this morning, that the Vermont make up game is April 28 @ 4:00 PM

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Depending what happens this weekend; there is very little reason to play that game. The 4 teams in the AmEast are pretty much set. A game on 4/28 MAY affect the seedings, but most likely not. That being said I'm glad UA is playing the game. The more they play, the better they get and these covid delays and not playing only hurts teams in my opinion.

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Inside Lacrosse first take on the D1 Men's bracket....it comes down to this:  the only team from the America East making the tournament is the conference tournament winner....link to article: https://www.insidelacrosse.com/article/il-s-2021-bracketology-a-first-look-like-never-before/57749

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Do Not Agree. AmEast still has an excellent chance for two. Breakdown IMHO as of now: First # almost definite; second possible:

ACC    4/0 [no auto bid-very little chance of all 5 in especially if SU splits its last two and is below .500.]

Big 10 2/1 [but a very doubtful +1 based on records after first 2-but power conference might kick-in.]

BigEast 2/1 [strong possible +1.]

Maac & Nec both 1/0

SOCO 1/1 [but weak +1]

Patriot 2/0

CAA. 1/1

AmEast 1/1

If you add the definite ins you get 15. If they take 17, two possibles in, [or just one if only 16 teams.] Pretty sure the 16/17 will be a selection day option. That leaves UA up against a strong 3rd from the Big East; a doubtful 3rd from the 10; a very weak 2nd from the SoCo; and a toss-up with the Caa. OBVIOUSLY a lot can happen in last 2 weeks & Tournament upsets etc.; but IMHO AmEast and UA are still very much in the running for 2 bids.

 

 

 

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America East with two teams in NCAA D1 MLAX Tournament: Auto Qualifier and One At Large Bid....do not see this happening.... none of the top four America East Conference teams have a meaningful out of conference win....anyone who played Syracuse.....LOST...then there is other out of conference losses and in-conference losses...sorry D....do not agree

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I absolutely see your point and do not disagree; but the kicker is most teams & leagues played mostly IN-confrence; with modified, limited or NO OOC games. Not that the NCAA is known for fairness; but to be fair they should minimize ooc games/records when putting the tournament together. In other words the chances for smaller teams to make a statement ooc were minimal due to covid restrictions, etc. Otherwise, might as well not have a tournament:  just have the ACC, BIG 10 & BIG East go head to head with THEIR top 16 teams.

Anyhow, you ARE more than likely correct that no conference, other than those 3 will get any multiple bids. I'm just saying IF the NCAA wanted a more representative/fair tournament, the AmEast has as good or better chance than any of the lesser leagues (other than perhaps the Patriot.)

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On 4/23/2021 at 9:47 AM, dslyank said:

Do Not Agree. AmEast still has an excellent chance for two. Breakdown IMHO as of now: First # almost definite; second possible:

ACC    4/0 [no auto bid-very little chance of all 5 in especially if SU splits its last two and is below .500.]

Big 10 2/1 [but a very doubtful +1 based on records after first 2-but power conference might kick-in.]

BigEast 2/1 [strong possible +1.]

Maac & Nec both 1/0

SOCO 1/1 [but weak +1]

Patriot 2/0

CAA. 1/1

AmEast 1/1

If you add the definite ins you get 15. If they take 17, two possibles in, [or just one if only 16 teams.] Pretty sure the 16/17 will be a selection day option. That leaves UA up against a strong 3rd from the Big East; a doubtful 3rd from the 10; a very weak 2nd from the SoCo; and a toss-up with the Caa. OBVIOUSLY a lot can happen in last 2 weeks & Tournament upsets etc.; but IMHO AmEast and UA are still very much in the running for 2 bids.

 

 

 

After today's result in Stony Brook, NY....the possibility of an at large bid for the AE conference is given some life.

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On 4/23/2021 at 9:47 AM, dslyank said:

Patriot 2/0

CAA. 1/1

AmEast 1/1

Update to my AmEast 2 bid chances. Navy beat-up on Army my "definite" second from Patriot. Now say Patriot becomes a 1/1 instead of a sure 2. On the other hand Cuse victory over Virginia brings in the possibility of ACC all 5 IN, but I still doubt it. Still a lot can happen, but feel AmEast has a good a chance as any league of getting multiple bids. Quint & Inside Lax having been saying all year that top to bottom it is the most competitive league in Lax.

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32 minutes ago, dslyank said:

Update to my AmEast 2 bid chances. Navy beat-up on Army my "definite" second from Patriot. Now say Patriot becomes a 1/1 instead of a sure 2. On the other hand Cuse victory over Virginia brings in the possibility of ACC all 5 IN, but I still doubt it. Still a lot can happen, but feel AmEast has a good a chance as any league of getting multiple bids. Quint & Inside Lax having been saying all year that top to bottom it is the most competitive league in Lax.

.....I would say there is the top 6 teams.....will win against the next 14 teams nearly every time in a match up.....the teams rank from 7 to 20 will go 50-50 when playing teams in that same range...to make it clear Maryland, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia....Lehigh maybe a little suspect...beats back the likes of Drexel, Rutgers, Stony Brook, and yes, UAlbany.....what happens if Lehigh or Georgetown loses in the quarterfinal or semifinal of conference championship rounds.....the equation is more complicated

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23 hours ago, cwdickens said:

.....I would say there is the top 6 teams.....will win against the next 14 teams nearly every time in a match up.....the teams rank from 7 to 20 will go 50-50 when playing teams in that same range...to make it clear Maryland, Notre Dame, Duke, North Carolina, Virginia....Lehigh maybe a little suspect...beats back the likes of Drexel, Rutgers, Stony Brook, and yes, UAlbany.....what happens if Lehigh or Georgetown loses in the quarterfinal or semifinal of conference championship rounds.....the equation is more complicated

Sorry I still don't agree that Big 10 and ACC should have that many teams in the tournament.   BTW Rutgers is playing really well.... 

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