Ten games in*

[Dane Pound]

*If you count the Dampots game.

A few thoughts so far:

-the in-season play hasn't fully met the preseason expectations.

-We haven't been able to put the team on the floor that created the preseason expectations.

-We need another guard in the rotation in the worst possible way.

-Cam Healy can do just about anything but we're asking him to do too much.

-Ahmad Clark isn't driving me as crazy as he did last year. That's not to say he doesn't drive me crazy. He has reduced chucking up threes, more or less. If he takes more than 4 or 5, we aren't winning. You can basically chart that stat out.

-Healy and Clark are playing way too many minutes. Did I say we need another guard yet? Both seemed worn down at the end of the Yale and Bucknell games.

-de Sousa (if healthy) has no idea how could he can be.

-Trey Hutcheson is so much better than I thought. I forget he's playing with a splint on his finger.

-Lauderdale and Rizzuto have been two of the most mercurial players I remember in a while. World beaters one game, then very little the next.

-We need another guard. Did I say that yet?

-I still like this team a lot. I'm prepared to endure some slings and arrows over the next couple of weeks until we can bring some guys back.

[Patch]

We have 3 losses by a total of 11 pts. (Lehigh by 4, Manhattan by 6 and Bucknell by 1) in those 3 games we totalled 49 turnovers.

 

in these 3 games we managed to get off a total of 154 FGA. add in 49 turnovers and about 32% of the time we didn't get a shot off.

 

We have to learn to value the ball!!!

 

PS. We could really use Lulka, too. I think is importance is undervalued by most.

 

We need another guard!!!

Edited December 9, 2019 by Patch

[Clickclack]

We badly need another guard...It's probably JoJo or bust at this point. I have no idea what to expect considering his injury and surgery. 

- If the turnover situation doesn't get better this team isn't going anywhere or doing anything. The turnovers though to me are very strange. Overall, this team is above average in terms of valuing the ball, it's true, look it up. Regarding turnovers we are ranked 115 in the country. But as a team we are incredibly inconsistent and frustrating. You look at games like Lehigh with 16 or Bucknell with 21 and wonder how is this the same team that had 10 against Yale, 13 against American, 11 against Presbyterian, 10 against Sacred Heart, 9 against Quinnipiac. I just don't get it...

- We badly need Lulka back, he gives you a reliable 10pts and 5 or 6rb every time out, we don't have that right now. It's feast or famine. 

- Hutcheson has been far better then expected

- Hansen, DeSousa and Rizzuto IMO so far have been GIANT let-downs. Rizzuto to me is the microcosm of this team, feast or famine, guy can drop 12 or 17pts and then gives you a slew of 2pt games while shooting 2-10. 

- The offense as a whole has been far worse then expected, downright disappointing IMO. The offensive struggles IMO are a function of two things, very poor PG play out of both Clark and Healy and propensity to have games with big turnovers. For instance, last time out Healy and Clark, two primary ball handlers combined for 9 turnovers. These are the guys who are supposed to get team into sets and value the ball. Healy in particular has 4 games of 4+ turnover...and another 2 with 3. Against Buckness, Clark has 4to and 1 ast. You're the starting PG and primary ball handler, I know it may sound like I'm picking on him but heavy is the head that wears the crown, much more is expected out of a senior PG. As a matter of fact it's downright infuriating, we aren't talking about a freshman here. Either run the team, value the ball or find the pine. Obviously the issue is there is no better option right now. For me personally, a lot hinges on JoJo as far as how far they can go. 

- Defense in my opinion especially lately has been improved significantly over last year, analytics absolutely bare this out...ranked 253 last year and ranked 154 this year. 

The overall theme for me is frustrating and dumb team, who when on is VERY VERY good, but the lows are very low. Good thing is Brown is a proven coach and I absolutely believe we have the horses and talent to be very good. They haven't put it together yet. I think CB would say the same thing, very frustrating team that repeatedly beats itself. Honestly I see a glimmer of hope here, hopefully I'm not wrong. This team strikes me as one that if they put it together will be a PIA for the league. Gotta get JoJo in there, and do something with Rizzuto and DeSousa who have been a disaster so far if you look at their totality of work with a few exceptions. 

Edited December 9, 2019 by Clickclack

[UAalum72]

WB on radio today said DeSousa tried Sat. (14 min) but his knee isn’t really ready to go yet. Hopes to get JoJo and Shafer back to practice later this week.

[Dane Pound]

5 minutes ago, UAalum72 said:

WB on radio today said DeSousa tried Sat. (14 min) but his knee isn’t really ready to go yet. Hopes to get JoJo and Shafer back to practice later this week.

I'll be curious to see Shafer. I wasn't super excited when we signed him. Not because I don't like him but because I didn't think he was the kind of player we needed. I saw him more as a wing which I thought he had enough of. I would have like another guard (if that isn't obvious.)

Disagree with Click on De Sousa. I thought he played pretty well. He pretty much filled the stat sheet. I'd like him to be more aggressive on the offensive end.

[Clickclack]

14 minutes ago, Dane Pound said:

I'll be curious to see Shafer. I wasn't super excited when we signed him. Not because I don't like him but because I didn't think he was the kind of player we needed. I saw him more as a wing which I thought he had enough of. I would have like another guard (if that isn't obvious.)

Disagree with Click on De Sousa. I thought he played pretty well. He pretty much filled the stat sheet. I'd like him to be more aggressive on the offensive end.

Regarding DeSousa, not only do I think he's been far to passive on the offensive end but when he does shoot, his offensive efficiency has retreated from last year. He's not attacking the rim as highlighted by his free throw rate being 1/2 of what it was last year. He's shooting 25% from 3 which isn't great and his block rate is 1/3 of what it was last year. That's right...1/3...he's getting beat handily off the dribble as well. 

He's a good rebounded though...I stand behind my assessment. He's a good player though but I'm not entirely sure he's even at the level he was towards the tail end of last year. With him, potential is still the mantra IMO. 

[Clickclack]

 

[Oldtimer]

We need another guard??  We started 4 guards the last two games and had 42 turnovers.  We just need someone who values the ball and realizes there are four team mates on the court.

[godanesgo99]

1 minute ago, Oldtimer said:

We need another guard??  We started 4 guards the last two games and had 42 turnovers.  We just need someone who values the ball and realizes there are four team mates on the court.

We need bigs that are a threat down low, make layups, and can catch passes. Without them, opposing teams are able to gamble to steal passes and play ultra tight D on the guards. Right now the opposition isn't afraid of getting beat off the dribble because they know they have help from their bigs since they aren't worried about a dish down low.

[Dane Pound]

1 hour ago, Oldtimer said:

We need another guard??  We started 4 guards the last two games and had 42 turnovers.  We just need someone who values the ball and realizes there are four team mates on the court.

I think we do. Badly

I don't really consider Hutcheson a guard so to me, we only have three guards now and they're all playing way too many minutes. I'd like another guy who can handle the ball, spell Clark and maybe let Clark play off the ball more where he can attach.

[godanesgo99]

6 hours ago, godanesgo99 said:

We need bigs that are a threat down low, make layups, and can catch passes. Without them, opposing teams are able to gamble to steal passes and play ultra tight D on the guards. Right now the opposition isn't afraid of getting beat off the dribble because they know they have help from their bigs since they aren't worried about a dish down low.

As for the bigs, I've been impressed with Hank since he has worked his way back into the lineup. If he improved his hands a little and got more aggressive he could be a force.

Lulka has been injured and we haven't seen what he can do yet. Hansen was really good in Canada, but seems to have fallen out of favor. I always thought French looked good, but he hasn't been able to get into the lineup. Doherty was highly touted.

The answer could be on the team now. Just need one or two of them to play well and assert themselves for a few games and it would open a lot up.

[Clickclack]

 

This is where we stand at this point, KenPom ranking of 221 and falling like a rock. A few thoughts...

- Defensively this is a middling team, ranked slightly worse than average. We don't get a lot of steals or force many turnovers. Defense isn't anything special but it's serviceable. 

- Offensively this team is offensive...if you look at the ORtg across the board you'll see the gory details for yourself. Turnover rates are astronomically high by pretty much everyone,  shooting percentages are absolutely brutal. On offense the players do not protect or value the ball...are stripped and stolen (different then throw away turnovers) at a rate never before seen by a Will Brown team, I actually looked. This speaks directly to a lack of ball handling guards and wings, this is a problem in making on the recruiting trail. Perhaps JoJo can help with this but right now, if you pressure Ahmad who is the only kid semi cable of dribbling the ball, you can feast on turnovers. 

- If you look at the entire sophomore class, it's undeniable that with the exception of Malachi, they have all gotten significantly worse. Just as an example, Healy offensive rating went from 111 to 104, Lulka dropped from 108 to 89 (this isn't a drop, this is a cratering of epic proportions, was true even before injury), Rizzuto 102 to 94 (another absolutely debacle). Seniors like Clark and Hansen not much better, Clark has career worst orating of 90.7 down from 94 last years, Hansen is completely lost, orating (I understand the program switch) has dropped from 99 to 79, he can't seem to do anything right. 

 

I know this is going to read harsh and these facts hurt, but there will come a time if this doesn't improve to ask why there is such significant regression. Players normally take a jump in their second year, this team from coaches on down has failed completely across the board. Much more then this was expected, a competitive team, even against a brutally weak schedule, they are sitting with a losing record. There is now flow, no offensive continuity, injuries have certainly not helped but this can't be explained away with Shafer and JoJo not playing, both of whom where expect to be role players even if important ones. Hard to stomach what we've witnessed all year...I find myself questioning the recruiting strategy again. Here is a list of all transfers and Juco's the program has taken on in the last 5 years, how many have been wastes scholarships?

 

- Clark

- Hansen

- Lauderdale

- Campbell

- Miller

- French

- Brooks

- Flory

- Travis Charles

- Alex Foster

- Costa Anderson

- Matt Conway

- Xavier Cohrain

- Marquees Grayson

- Jaraan Lands

- Martin-Garcia

- Jamir Andrews

- Richard Peters

- Ray Sanders

- Evan Singletary 

 

I may have missed one or two but 20 kids. How many of them if given another chance would anyone give a scholarship to again? Ray Sanders, Evan Singletary, Travis Charles, Ahmad Clark...so maybe 4 or 5 kids? So 75% failure rate in the last 5 years alone and we wonder why we are here? I'm not the coach and don't accumulate W's and L's but this is absolutely brutal and I wonder why we keep trying to build with this recruiting strategy. 

 

The program is in a problematic place and has been for a while now. Since 2015, we continue to slide down the standings. I thought last year we bottomed out but not I'm not sure...every game is worse than the last. 

 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Clickclack

[godanesgo99]

• - Clark - No matter what anyone says, as the only ball handler on the team, and someone who can take over a game, I call him a net +
• - Hansen - Too early to tell, but so far not looking good at all
• - Lauderdale - One of my favorite players on the team. May not be all-conference, but I call him a net +
• - Campbell - Regressed after an amazing sophomore year, but made 3 all-defensive teams. He was a net +
• - Miller - No idea what he did in the locker room, but didn't play his way into the line-up. I met him and he seemed like a good kid, but I'll go net -
• - French - We needed size, and he provides it, but so far he hasn't earned PT or has been injured net - as of today, but too early to tell with 1.5 years left.
• - Brooks - Net -
• - Flory - Never got healthy then left - Net -
• - Travis Charles - Sir Buckets! - Major +
• - Alex Foster - Never learned the system. One of the best athletes I have seen in purple and gold, but didn't earn enough time on the court net-
• - Costa Anderson - Hit some big shots for us, but didn't play much - net -
• - Matt Conway - Seemed talented, but never earned his way onto the floor - net -
• - Xavier Cohrain - Highly touted athlete. Never earned his way onto the floor. 
• - Marquees Grayson - Started for a bit, but fell out of favor Net -
• - Jaraan Lands - Injured after a decent start. Transferred to D2 for more playing time with hopes to go pro - Net -
• - Martin-Garcia - Never played outside of garbage time. Net -
• - Jamir Andrews - I forgot he was on the team - Net -
• - Richard Peters - Didn't score much, but was a huge body and strong presence. He definitely helped the team on and off the court. One of my favorite players. It is too bad his injury never fully healed. Then again, if he was healthy he probably would have played higher. Net +
• - Ray Sanders - Dude could ball - Net +
• - Evan Singletary  - Dude could ball - Net +

 

 

You named 20 players. I didn't take the time to check to see if you missed anyone.

• 7 for 20 are pluses, including 2 of the better players to wear purple and gold in Ray and Evan
• 2 are too early to tell as Hansen has shown flashes, but if the season were to end today would be a negative. Need to see him in AE play before a determination is made. French has 1.5 years left could still end up a +, but he is tentatively marked as a negative. He has been here long enough to say he is a net - so far, but he could change my mind
• 11 are pretty clearly net negatives

Not sure how the success % of 4 year players working out is, but this doesn't seem as bad as you imply:

• 35% success for strong contributors
• 55% fail rate for players that did not visually help the team
• 10% is TBD

Go back and do the same analysis on the 4 year players brought in over the same period and see what the % looks like. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by godanesgo99

[Clickclack]

51 minutes ago, godanesgo99 said:

• - Clark - No matter what anyone says, as the only ball handler on the team, and someone who can take over a game, I call him a net +
• - Hansen - Too early to tell, but so far not looking good at all
• - Lauderdale - One of my favorite players on the team. May not be all-conference, but I call him a net +
• - Campbell - Regressed after an amazing sophomore year, but made 3 all-defensive teams. He was a net +
• - Miller - No idea what he did in the locker room, but didn't play his way into the line-up. I met him and he seemed like a good kid, but I'll go net -
• - French - We needed size, and he provides it, but so far he hasn't earned PT or has been injured net - as of today, but too early to tell with 1.5 years left.
• - Brooks - Net -
• - Flory - Never got healthy then left - Net -
• - Travis Charles - Sir Buckets! - Major +
• - Alex Foster - Never learned the system. One of the best athletes I have seen in purple and gold, but didn't earn enough time on the court net-
• - Costa Anderson - Hit some big shots for us, but didn't play much - net -
• - Matt Conway - Seemed talented, but never earned his way onto the floor - net -
• - Xavier Cohrain - Highly touted athlete. Never earned his way onto the floor. 
• - Marquees Grayson - Started for a bit, but fell out of favor Net -
• - Jaraan Lands - Injured after a decent start. Transferred to D2 for more playing time with hopes to go pro - Net -
• - Martin-Garcia - Never played outside of garbage time. Net -
• - Jamir Andrews - I forgot he was on the team - Net -
• - Richard Peters - Didn't score much, but was a huge body and strong presence. He definitely helped the team on and off the court. One of my favorite players. It is too bad his injury never fully healed. Then again, if he was healthy he probably would have played higher. Net +
• - Ray Sanders - Dude could ball - Net +
• - Evan Singletary  - Dude could ball - Net +

 

 

You named 20 players. I didn't take the time to check to see if you missed anyone.

• 7 for 20 are pluses, including 2 of the better players to wear purple and gold in Ray and Evan
• 2 are too early to tell as Hansen has shown flashes, but if the season were to end today would be a negative. Need to see him in AE play before a determination is made. French has 1.5 years left could still end up a +, but he is tentatively marked as a negative. He has been here long enough to say he is a net - so far, but he could change my mind
• 11 are pretty clearly net negatives

Not sure how the success % of 4 year players working out is, but this doesn't seem as bad as you imply:

• 35% success for strong contributors
• 55% fail rate for players that did not visually help the team
• 10% is TBD

Go back and do the same analysis on the 4 year players brought in over the same period and see what the % looks like. 

I understand people view players differently but Peter's isn't anywhere near a plus for me. Campbell as a sophomore yes... The rest was pretty painful. Clark, Ray, Evan and Travis no question. The rest is a matter of preference...I'll even give you Campbell... 5 in 5 years? Out of 20? 

 

Problem is I find jucos and transfers can take a year or more to sync up with program. By that point 50 to 75 percent of their UA career is over.

 

I'll try do something similar for 4 year kids. Just curious. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Clickclack

[UA'08]

29 minutes ago, Clickclack said:

I understand people view players differently but Peter's isn't anywhere near a plus for me. Campbell as a sophomore yes... The rest was pretty painful. Clark, Ray, Evan and Travis no question. The rest is a matter of preference...I'll even give you Campbell... 5 in 5 years? Out of 20? 

 

Problem is I find jucos and transfers can take a year or more to sync up with program. By that point 50 to 75 percent of their UA career is over.

 

I'll try do something similar for 4 year kids. Just curious. 

Going out on a limb and going to say 4 year guys may be slightly better, but only because it takes years to gain trust from WB. Interested to see the #s as well.