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Game #14: 12/7/19 - 3:00PM @ #5 Montana State [FCS Playoffs Round 2]


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7 minutes ago, catbob said:

Howdy Albany fans!  MSU fan here.  I know there are a fair amount of us hoping to register here to post, but not a single one of us has been successful (which means any Albany fans trying to register likely can't either). 

Certainly some fans are taking this game too lightly but many of us certainly aren't.  People are still riding high after the 48-14 dismantling of our rival Montana who also happened to be the #3 team in the country at the time, but I'll be the first to tell you we could play that game 100 times and never win by that big of margin again, it was a perfect storm. 

There are a lot of intriguing matchups in this game.  I'm very curious to see how a team who has no familiarity with how MSU's offense operates decides to defend it. It is extremely unconventional in that it has elements of literally every running scheme you can think of. At the very least defensive coordinators have to spend a ton of time creating a game plan because we essentially run multiple offenses.  What MSU does on offense is basically take the first quarter or even into the 2nd to feel you out and then start adjusting to where it thinks it can take advantage, and lean our on defense to keep the game close until the offense figures it out.  If MSU's gameplan works right out of the gate that's where you've seen MSU put up 3+ touchdowns in the first half and if MSU has a 2 score lead at halftime it is going to be extremely difficult for any team to come back as MSU will literally abandon the pass and run for 4 yards a carry until the defense gives up.  MSU was beating UM 31-14 at half and won 48-14 and our starting QB only attempted 2 passes in the 2nd half as the Cats ran for 175 yards after halftime to preserve the win.  UM had only been giving up just over 80 yards a game rushing entering the game, including playing Oregon, before we put up 382 yards on them on the ground.

Defensively we do give up some yards through the air but we don't give up long touchdowns.  We've only given up 15 passing touchdowns all year through 12 games including playing at Texas Tech.  A lot of that starts up front with our front 7, in particular our DL who may not have eye popping stat numbers but are very effective at collapsing the pocket and making life hard on a QB - we are 2nd in the conference in pass efficiency defense, which doesn't translate well nationally because of the dynamic passing games you see in the Big Sky (and having played Texas Tech does not help).  To me the Albany offense poses a serious threat with a big gunslinger QB and a talented group of wideouts, coupled with a physical running back who looks like he needs to be gang tackled.  He does appear to be the least mobile QB we will have faced in a while so it'll be interesting to see if we can get to him with more regularity than we have against the typical mobile Big Sky QBs who get the ball out very quickly.

FYI Albany is 27th in the nation in penalties against, so our coach might actually know what he's talking about there Eli... I wouldn't call a team who is 27th nationally a team that gets penalized a lot?  If you finished that low in the CAA maybe refs just don't throw flags in the CAA - I just looked it up and Albany would be first in the Big Sky Conference by .02 yards per game over MSU (including starts from the CCSU game).  That's kind of a crazy stat - a bottom 1/3 team in penalties against in the CAA would be #1 in the Big Sky.

Looking forward to the game!

 

Welcome to the board catbob. Just remember to take everything you read on this board with a grain of salt. Much of the conversation here has devolved into complaining about whatever flavor of the day needs to be complained about.  With a winning season, the tone has gotten decidedly much more positive and upbeat, but the lingering feeling of doom of the last few years still haunts the board. Just read some of the fire gattuso threads to get an idea of what I mean.

Eli's comment on turnovers was not about the stats or numbers, but about the direct effect on the outcomes of the games from the turnovers this team has had. Team is 9-4 now, but could very easily be 11-2 or even 12-1 if not for the bad timing of turnovers or problems with the kicking game. Look at it this way - if your team averaged only 1 turnover per game, but each time it led directly to a touchdown or stopped a potential game winning drive you would still consider turnovers a problem for your team. Even if that 1 per game is the best number in the country - it is the effect of them on the minds of the fans! 

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I understand, the timeliness of penalties and/or turnovers is a pretty big deal but not sure any coach at the FCS level is going to analyze when and how they occur and affect an opponent. There isn't an army of analysts like there is at the FBS level.  You'll just watch some game film and look at stats, and the stats certainly point to a team who doesn't make a ton of mistakes - Albany has a really good turnover margin, good passing efficiency, not many penalty yards against, but turning the ball over 20 times certainly is not a great stat for Albany.

Just kind of funny, that might be the first time I've ever heard someone call Choate clueless after watching a press conference.  He is extremely fun to listen to because he just talks football, loves talking football, and most times I feel I know more about football after listening to his pressers than I did before. 

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1 hour ago, catbob said:

Howdy Albany fans!  MSU fan here.  I know there are a fair amount of us hoping to register here to post, but not a single one of us has been successful (which means any Albany fans trying to register likely can't either). 

Certainly some fans are taking this game too lightly but many of us certainly aren't.  People are still riding high after the 48-14 dismantling of our rival Montana who also happened to be the #3 team in the country at the time, but I'll be the first to tell you we could play that game 100 times and never win by that big of margin again, it was a perfect storm. 

There are a lot of intriguing matchups in this game.  I'm very curious to see how a team who has no familiarity with how MSU's offense operates decides to defend it. It is extremely unconventional in that it has elements of literally every running scheme you can think of. At the very least defensive coordinators have to spend a ton of time creating a game plan because we essentially run multiple offenses.  What MSU does on offense is basically take the first quarter or even into the 2nd to feel you out and then start adjusting to where it thinks it can take advantage, and lean our on defense to keep the game close until the offense figures it out.  If MSU's gameplan works right out of the gate that's where you've seen MSU put up 3+ touchdowns in the first half and if MSU has a 2 score lead at halftime it is going to be extremely difficult for any team to come back as MSU will literally abandon the pass and run for 4 yards a carry until the defense gives up.  MSU was beating UM 31-14 at half and won 48-14 and our starting QB only attempted 2 passes in the 2nd half as the Cats ran for 175 yards after halftime to preserve the win.  UM had only been giving up just over 80 yards a game rushing entering the game, including playing Oregon, before we put up 382 yards on them on the ground.

Defensively we do give up some yards through the air but we don't give up long touchdowns.  We've only given up 15 passing touchdowns all year through 12 games including playing at Texas Tech.  A lot of that starts up front with our front 7, in particular our DL who may not have eye popping stat numbers but are very effective at collapsing the pocket and making life hard on a QB - we are 2nd in the conference in pass efficiency defense, which doesn't translate well nationally because of the dynamic passing games you see in the Big Sky (and having played Texas Tech does not help).  To me the Albany offense poses a serious threat with a big gunslinger QB and a talented group of wideouts, coupled with a physical running back who looks like he needs to be gang tackled.  He does appear to be the least mobile QB we will have faced in a while so it'll be interesting to see if we can get to him with more regularity than we have against the typical mobile Big Sky QBs who get the ball out very quickly.

FYI Albany is 27th in the nation in penalties against, so our coach might actually know what he's talking about there Eli... I wouldn't call a team who is 27th nationally a team that gets penalized a lot?  If you finished that low in the CAA maybe refs just don't throw flags in the CAA - I just looked it up and Albany would be first in the Big Sky Conference by .02 yards per game over MSU (including starts from the CCSU game).  That's kind of a crazy stat - a bottom 1/3 team in penalties against in the CAA would be #1 in the Big Sky.

Looking forward to the game!

 

Catbob welcome to the board. I promise this isn't going to be the mandatory compliment or the proverbial "smoke blown up... well you get the picture."

Montana State really looks to be a fierce team from what I can gather. You guys have my utmost respect and as another poster here has stated MSU will probably be our toughest opponent sine our FBS game against Central Michigan. Physical teams like MSU that pound opponents into the ground with a running game scare me. When we were dominating in the NEC (6 conference titles) we had that same type of offense and would just beat teams into submission with a big OL and big backs. I loved it.  We even took one of those teams out to Montana and played the University of Montana tough until the scholarship differential/depth took over. I believe it was tied at halftime and I think we lost 28-14 or 35-14 I cant remember. We are more of a big play finesse offense and can (hopefully) run the ball if needed.  MSU is one of those types of teams. 7 different rb's get carries and from what I gather your OL is pretty big. On D we are not small but we are not huge either. We need to shoot gaps and mix up fronts. My guess is we will load the box and dare your QB to beat us. My fear is we will wear down. Our QB (see Stony Brook game) has a quick release into the flats or a bubble screen in the hurry up offense which I think you will also see.

We have played and beaten teams with big crowds this season. Delaware gets 15-20k per game and we beat them. For the most part the crowds in the CAA including Albany when we are having a good season are in the 4k-10k arena. Delaware and JMU are in the 12-20K arena. We have had games where attendance was 11,000 ( opening of the stadium)even though capacity is 8500. I feel we will have better attendance next season due to the success of this years team. But 18,000 should not bother our kids, in fact it may be a great motivator.

I am excited to see how this game plays out. Should we lose I will be pulling for you guys the rest of the way. Good Luck

 

Edited by MRuler 79
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Hey Albany fans, another Bobcat fan here.

First, thanks for fixing whatever it was that blocked us from registering, we just want to talk football, no ill intentions.

So with a big storm hitting your area in the last few days, do any of you think that there might be some distractions in practice and planning. I know you coach kind of brushed it off when asked, but it can causes some issues. I heard your team would be in an indoor soccer facility I'm wondering if that facility is close by or a bit of travel is involved.

Forecast for the game looks great, 42°, slight chance of snow, winds under 7 mph. Your team will probably enjoy the break from the current weather problems yo are suffering.

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24 minutes ago, Cats2506 said:

Hey Albany fans, another Bobcat fan here.

First, thanks for fixing whatever it was that blocked us from registering, we just want to talk football, no ill intentions.

So with a big storm hitting your area in the last few days, do any of you think that there might be some distractions in practice and planning. I know you coach kind of brushed it off when asked, but it can causes some issues. I heard your team would be in an indoor soccer facility I'm wondering if that facility is close by or a bit of travel is involved.

Forecast for the game looks great, 42°, slight chance of snow, winds under 7 mph. Your team will probably enjoy the break from the current weather problems yo are suffering.

Welcome! I’ve been having fun over on your board chatting with all of you.  According to Google maps it’s about a 15 min ride from campus to the indoor field....so no big deal. The weather sounds like Albany this time of year. 

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MSU averages 304 pounds on the OL and the shortest non-center (center is 6'1 285) is Taylor Tuiasosopo who is only 6'4 316.  Mitch Brott is 6'6 300 and likely will get drafted.  The unit as a whole has had their ups and downs but have played really well since the UND loss.  Pass protection would be their weakest point but we run the ball nearly 65% of the time.  Our WRs are very good blockers as well, but are very capable receivers when called upon.

At RB you'll see plenty of Isaiah Ifanse who was all-conference last year as a true freshman and the former Gatorade player of the year in WA state.  He's 5'10 202 but is bow-legged and runs extremely hard, but has enough speed to break one now and again.  He's been hurt most of the year but is seemingly finally healthy so he's fresh right now, but only 73 carries through 8 games but has 518 yards and 4 TDs to show for it.  Then you'll see Logan Jones, a 6th year senior who runs extremely hard for his size as well but has much more speed and quickness than Ifanse, at 5'7 196.  Leads the team with 788 yards and 7 TDs on just 116 carries despite being limited all year due to a rib injury. 

The next two are where things get a little tricky. 

Travis Jonsen is a 6'4 210 former Oregon commit (QB) with legit NFL speed and athleticism.  He is our wildcat QB with 451 yards on 68 carries and 6 TDs, he is our 2nd leading receiver with 40 catches for 471 yards, and he is our best punt return gunner as he's able to blow by his blockers and get downfield so quickly that he forces a lot of fair catches.  He was rendered relatively ineffective against UM, just 8 yards on 4 carries, because UM keyed in so hard on our wildcat formation that they didn't seem to think we had any other run plays... but he has capable of breaking one at anytime from the wildcat QB spot.

Then we've had sort of an emergence out of nowhere from WR Tyrone Marshall, who we use on fly/jet sweeps to attack the edges.  He had 8 carries for 81 yards and a TD against UM, so he now has 12 carries for 163 yards and 2 TDs, good for 13.6 YPC. 

In summation, the Cats can attack you from a lot of different formations and sets, and our top 7 ball carriers are averaging 7.06 yards per carry.  I'm not saying we can't be shut down or we're some sort of unstoppable force but we are as dynamic a team running the ball as I've ever seen, just with finding creative ways to run the ball and the the ball into the hands of our playmakers whilst not having a big threat at QB from our traditional QB Tucker Rovig, who is 6'5 217. 

Edited by catbob
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Who let these guys in here?!?! Ban them all!!!

😋  Kidding MSU fans.  Welcome aboard and glad to read your thoughts.  This will definitely be a tough task for the Danes on the road in front of a big/loud crowd against what seems to be a very very tough team.  

Question for you. Do teams often "stack the box" to try and stop the run and are just unsuccessful because of all the running schemes that MSU runs? It really seems from the stats that the passing game is not that good but that may just be because the running game seems so good or as you said in your post, MSU doesn't need to pass in the second half when up big and the run is working. Our defense is not great against the run so this may be a tough situation for UA.

The UA coaches need to somehow figure out how to slow down the run (probably not going to stop it) and force your QB into passing situations, let Mencer and the other boys up front attack the QB and try and force some turnovers.  I said it an earlier post that if we can win the turnover battle I think we have a shot to win the game.  That will be hard to do from the stats I've seen but I think it's probably the best if not the only path to victory.

Another question, I've read a bunch of posts on your forum and your posts here. What are MSUs weakness?  From the posts I've read, they have all been about all the great things MSU does (don't take that the wrong way) but I want to hear what you, the fans who have watched most if not all the games, think are the biggest weaknesses.  Is it the passing game? Is it pass defense? Is it special teams? Secondary? WRs? QB? Every team has them.

Last point, I enjoyed your coaches press conference. He seems like a real football guy and was impressed by the jersey numbers and stats he was pulling out. I know he had notes he was looking at but seemed he had most of it on the tip of his tongue and not just reading off the paper.  Impressive. He did however build up UA a lot more than deserved. And someone's comment about the armory ad was more about how it would never be on anything in NY. I think it was just a comment on the differences in culture between the states and not a shot at anyone. 

Thanks for joining and looking forward to a fun week of build up and hopefully a hard fought game on Saturday.

 

 

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And hey, MSU fans....you get to keep your Governor!  He won't be leading our great nation after 2020. And I will swear on a  stack of bibles that I had no idea he was even running for President. What was his first clue that maybe he ought to get his butt back to Helena? In terms of the armory ad...I thought it was great! In NY, you're more apt to get some politician wanting to come and take your guns away. 

Slinging Stats interruption:

NCAA says our SOS is #27 and yours is 104! Don't shoot the messenger.....just passing it along. I think they just go by W/L records so that's kind of misleading...just fun to say 🙂

NCAA also says your third down defensive efficiency is #53.......while UA is #3! Yes, #3 in all of FCS....I didn't even know that.

NCAA reports that MSU is #53 in red zone D, while UA is # 23....how about that?

NCAA calculates that UA is #46 on pass defense and MSU is 85. 

You get us in Rush defense, 17 to 47 and scoring D is pretty close....MSU 27, UA 35. 

What's it all mean? Nothing. They still have to play on Saturday. In 2015, Buffalo crushed Albany. The prognosticators had them crushing Albany again in 2016....the result being that (as someone said) UB is no longer taking calls from the 518 area code. They want the SURE wins now. 

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21 minutes ago, DanesRGood said:

Who let these guys in here?!?! Ban them all!!!

😋  Kidding MSU fans.  Welcome aboard and glad to read your thoughts.  This will definitely be a tough task for the Danes on the road in front of a big/loud crowd against what seems to be a very very tough team.  

Question for you. Do teams often "stack the box" to try and stop the run and are just unsuccessful because of all the running schemes that MSU runs? It really seems from the stats that the passing game is not that good but that may just be because the running game seems so good or as you said in your post, MSU doesn't need to pass in the second half when up big and the run is working. Our defense is not great against the run so this may be a tough situation for UA.

The UA coaches need to somehow figure out how to slow down the run (probably not going to stop it) and force your QB into passing situations, let Mencer and the other boys up front attack the QB and try and force some turnovers.  I said it an earlier post that if we can win the turnover battle I think we have a shot to win the game.  That will be hard to do from the stats I've seen but I think it's probably the best if not the only path to victory.

Another question, I've read a bunch of posts on your forum and your posts here. What are MSUs weakness?  From the posts I've read, they have all been about all the great things MSU does (don't take that the wrong way) but I want to hear what you, the fans who have watched most if not all the games, think are the biggest weaknesses.  Is it the passing game? Is it pass defense? Is it special teams? Secondary? WRs? QB? Every team has them.

Last point, I enjoyed your coaches press conference. He seems like a real football guy and was impressed by the jersey numbers and stats he was pulling out. I know he had notes he was looking at but seemed he had most of it on the tip of his tongue and not just reading off the paper.  Impressive. He did however build up UA a lot more than deserved. And someone's comment about the armory ad was more about how it would never be on anything in NY. I think it was just a comment on the differences in culture between the states and not a shot at anyone. 

Thanks for joining and looking forward to a fun week of build up and hopefully a hard fought game on Saturday.

 

 

Everybodys plan against MSU is to stack the box. It works better for some than for others. If they stack the box and we still are able to run the ball it is what our coach refers to as "stealing their soul". Another phrase you will hear is "drag them into deep water" meaning keep it close and see how they do in the the 4th quarter.  The thing about teams that stack the box is that when we break through, often there is no one between the RB and the endzone, allowing for explosive big gaining chunk plays.

A good defense that plays us much like a triple option team is the best bet to slow us down. The front 4 will need to be disciplined and stay home, no blitzes or twists, line backers need to be fast and effective tacklers and make good reads each play. It has to be assignment football, each possible ball carrier will need to be covered every play. We do a lot of pre and post snap movement to give linebackers a headache figuring out where we are going, we run inside and outside zone, along with traps and counters, then will run power and reverses and some fly sweep and any combination of all of the above. 

 

Our weakness is obviously our pass offense, but after you stack the box we will probably have man to man on our receivers and will make some completions.

 

Our defense is the best I have ever seen at MSU, that goes back to the 70's including an DII  and a DI-AA national championship teams. We have hung our hat on defense for a lot of years. Pass defense is the weakest, but we will play catch/tackle, meaning yo catch the ball but we tackle you immediately, limiting YAC

Edited by Cats2506
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7 minutes ago, jimbo said:

And hey, MSU fans....you get to keep your Governor!  He won't be leading our great nation after 2020. And I will swear on a  stack of bibles that I had no idea he was even running for President. What was his first clue that maybe he ought to get his butt back to Helena? In terms of the armory ad...I thought it was great! In NY, you're more apt to get some politician wanting to come and take your guns away. 

Slinging Stats interruption:

NCAA says our SOS is #27 and yours is 104! Don't shoot the messenger.....just passing it along. I think they just go by W/L records so that's kind of misleading...just fun to say 🙂

NCAA also says your third down defensive efficiency is #53.......while UA is #3! Yes, #3 in all of FCS....I didn't even know that.

NCAA reports that MSU is #53 in red zone D, while UA is # 23....how about that?

NCAA calculates that UA is #46 on pass defense and MSU is 85. 

You get us in Rush defense, 17 to 47 and scoring D is pretty close....MSU 27, UA 35. 

What's it all mean? Nothing. They still have to play on Saturday. In 2015, Buffalo crushed Albany. The prognosticators had them crushing Albany again in 2016....the result being that (as someone said) UB is no longer taking calls from the 518 area code. They want the SURE wins now. 

Yeah, 1- its hard to compare using national stats, different leagues have such different types and levels of play. 2- we have heard this from most games we have played this year, UM's SOS was great, and they had one of the best rushing defenses in the Big Sky...... until MSU ran for 385 on them. All I can say is that your rush defense rating will go down after you play us.

 

Stats don't always tell the story. MSU is the Big Sky leader in rushing by almost 20 y/g  over the second, a triple option team and almost 70 over the third. MSU's top individual rusher is #10 in the league.

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MSU certainly has some weaknesses.  On defense they just aren't glaring.  Our biggest weakness when you look at it statistically is certainly pass yardage given up, but MSU has played the #1, #6, #17, #15, #23 and #26 rated passing offenses in the country in terms of yards per game, in addition to Texas Tech.  But of course 3 of those were losses - Texas Tech, #26 UND and #15 Sac State.  But defense wasn't the problem at UND, as we only gave up 16 points and 7 of those were a blocked punt TD (the other TD was a trick play). But If we're looking at yards per game, Albany would be 8th in the Big Sky (but first in TD passes).  This to me means Albany takes huge advantage of turnovers forced and must start with pretty good field position. 

As statistically good as our rushing defense looks, it has been vulnerable at times as well when we are too focused on stopping the pass.  And we will give up some yardage through the air if we can't get to Undercuffler, teams have had some success throwing against us in terms of yards but like I said points are another matter entirely, we're giving up just 21.5 PPG and that includes 45 to Texas Tech.  Our tackling has been suspect at times throughout the year but again that has really cleaned up since the Sac State loss, a lot more gang tackling now.

Offensively obviously the weakness is throwing the ball, but Tucker Rovig has improved game by game.  He went through a rough patch midway through the season (only like his 4th-7th career starts) but his last two games have been the best of his career IMO.  Against UCD he was 17/25 for 217 yards, and against UM he was 7/11 in the first half for 102 yards, and only attempted 2 passes in the 2nd half (both incomplete).  MSU will throw the ball early simply to show you that we can and that you better not sell out completely to the run.  If the run game is getting shut down don't look for MSU to all of the sudden become a pass happy team - we ran our way back from a 31-14 3rd quarter deficit against NAU and won 49-31, at one point running the ball 22 straight times, even with a 3 score deficit.  The OL has given up some big sacks so there is another potential weakness - we thrive on 3rd and short, if we are forced into 3rd and long we are not good and our 3rd down % reflects that.

The other potential weakness is that sometimes our offensive playcalling gets... boxed in as Choate called it when things don't go well.  We abandon some of the stuff that is working, but honestly it was a huge emphasis after the UND game and it really hasn't been an issue since then, playcalling has been much better and creative, but certainly could rear it's ugly head again.

Special teams are solid all the way around, kicker is a bit inconsistent but can boot it from 50+.  Coverage is very solid and we have one of the best FCS punters in the country.

Edited by catbob
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22 hours ago, Eli said:

I stopped watching when he said at 2:22 that we don't get penalized a lot and don't shoot ourselves in the foot. Like their fans saying all we do is throw slants, this guy is clueless. We were ranked 8th out of 12 CAA teams in penalties, averaging 52.3 a game. Granted we got the opposing team to average 62 penalty yards a game.

Hopefully he's that asleep at the wheel on Saturday lol.

Also, lol @ the sponsorship shoutout at the beginning. You'd never hear that in this stupid state. Way go to Montana!

He said they only looked at the last 5 games, we have been a LOT better.  Remember we had 16 against Richmond

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4 hours ago, Cats2506 said:

Hey Albany fans, another Bobcat fan here.

First, thanks for fixing whatever it was that blocked us from registering, we just want to talk football, no ill intentions.

So with a big storm hitting your area in the last few days, do any of you think that there might be some distractions in practice and planning. I know you coach kind of brushed it off when asked, but it can causes some issues. I heard your team would be in an indoor soccer facility I'm wondering if that facility is close by or a bit of travel is involved.

Forecast for the game looks great, 42°, slight chance of snow, winds under 7 mph. Your team will probably enjoy the break from the current weather problems yo are suffering.

They have not been on the field at all since Saturday.  Will be tomorrow.  Had to practice indoors. BTW, the indoor field is about 10 minutes from campus.  Our top  4-25 Lacrosse team practices there some times and actually scrimmages there sometimes.  We are use to the snow and cold weather.  It was Thanksgiving weekend and in the 30's with breeze all day Saturday.  Had to hurt the attendance.  Crowds don't seem to bother us.  Played at Pittsburgh last year and at Central Michigan this year, plus Delaware etc.  We have only been D I since 1999 and in the CAA for 6 years (I think) - it was a BIG step up.  Takes a while. 

Edited by HOF2013
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  • Eli changed the title to Game #14: 12/7/19 - 3:00PM @ #5 Montana State [FCS Playoffs Round 2]

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