mbb 2022 Game #15: 12/28/22 - 6PM at #13 Virginia

[Eli]

Last Up: W (83-78) @ Northern Illinois
Next Up: @ #13 Virginia (8-2)
Date: 12/28/22 @ 6PM
TV/Streaming: ACCN
Local Radio: ESPN 104.5 The Team
ESPN Matchup Predictor: 1.5% chance of a UAlbany win

UAlbany Wins																																			
** Albany stats are the left side in each grouping **																																			
Opponent	Type	LOC	ATN	PTS		FGM		FGA		FG%		3PTM		3PTA		3PT%		FTM		FTA		FT%		REB		AST		STL		BLK		TO		FOUL	
Presbyterian	OOC	Home	1417	68	65	26	24	61	55	42.6%	43.6%	9	0	20	11	45.0%	0.0%	7	17	15	22	46.7%	77.3%	38	36	11	4	5	6	1	2	11	12	17	21
LI University	OOC	Home	907	76	59	26	23	55	62	47.3%	37.1%	4	3	17	11	23.5%	27.3%	20	10	25	21	80.0%	47.6%	43	33	17	12	9	6	2	4	19	18	20	18
N. Illinois	OOC	Home	506	83	78	30	29	64	54	46.9%	53.7%	12	5	29	17	41.4%	29.4%	11	15	17	21	64.7%	71.4%	38	30	14	14	7	5	1	3	15	16	19	21																																		
																																			
Tot. W		OOC		2830	227	202	82	76	180	171	45.6%	44.4%	25	8	66	39	37.9%	20.5%	38	42	57	64	66.7%	65.6%	119	99	42	30	21	17	4	9	45	46	56	60
Avg. W		OOC		943.3	75.7	67.3	27.3	25.3	60.0	57.0	45.6%	44.4%	8.3	2.7	22.0	13.0	37.9%	20.5%	12.7	14.0	19.0	21.3	66.7%	65.6%	39.7	33.0	14.0	10.0	7.0	5.7	1.3	3.0	15.0	15.3	18.7	20.0
																																			
UAlbany Losses																																			
** Albany stats are the left side in each grouping **																																			
Opponent	Type	LOC	ATN	PTS		FGM		FGA		FG%		3PTM		3PTA		3PT%		FTM		FTA		FT%		REB		AST		STL		BLK		TO		FOUL	
Towson		OOC	Away	3242	62	67	19	23	53	53	35.8%	43.4%	10	3	31	12	32.3%	25.0%	14	18	18	21	77.8%	85.7%	34	32	14	13	5	6	4	3	15	13	21	16
Siena		OOC	Away	9561	62	75	21	23	54	54	38.9%	42.6%	8	9	22	17	36.4%	52.9%	12	20	18	33	66.7%	60.6%	30	42	7	14	4	4	3	5	12	13	27	18
St. Josephs	OOC	Away	1452	79	99	25	31	60	55	41.7%	56.4%	9	12	27	26	33.3%	46.2%	20	25	29	43	69.0%	58.1%	34	38	12	16	7	10	1	1	12	12	29	27
Austin Peay	OOC	Away	1000	59	74	20	24	48	49	41.7%	49.0%	5	3	22	13	22.7%	23.1%	14	23	21	27	66.7%	85.2%	31	30	12	11	3	2	1	3	15	8	24	18
FL. Atlantic	OOC	Home	1093	56	73	20	29	58	59	34.5%	49.2%	5	8	16	24	31.3%	33.3%	11	7	15	11	73.3%	63.6%	32	42	6	10	6	6	2	3	9	11	15	14
American	OOC	Home	1009	62	88	22	35	50	49	44.0%	71.4%	8	8	19	11	42.1%	72.7%	10	10	15	12	66.7%	83.3%	17	29	8	23	6	9	2	2	10	11	15	13
Umass		OOC	Away	3174	73	87	25	33	62	62	40.3%	53.2%	11	3	32	15	34.4%	20.0%	12	18	20	26	60.0%	69.2%	39	36	14	19	4	12	3	5	17	12	23	19
Providence	OOC	Away	8229	55	93	19	34	67	62	28.4%	54.8%	6	4	30	19	20.0%	21.1%	11	21	13	26	84.6%	80.8%	30	48	8	17	8	7	4	3	15	12	22	12
Loyola Chicago	OOC	Away	3162	56	68	19	24	54	48	35.2%	50.0%	5	6	18	16	27.8%	37.5%	13	14	18	20	72.2%	70.0%	28	38	10	14	5	4	1	7	11	13	18	16																																		
																																			
Tot. L		OOC		31922	564	724	190	256	506	491	37.5%	52.1%	67	56	217	153	30.9%	36.6%	117	156	167	219	70.1%	71.2%	275	335	91	137	48	60	21	32	116	105	194	153
Avg. L		OOC		3546.9	62.7	80.4	21.1	28.4	56.2	54.6	37.5%	52.1%	7.4	6.2	24.1	17.0	30.9%	36.6%	13.0	17.3	18.6	24.3	70.1%	71.2%	30.6	37.2	10.1	15.2	5.3	6.7	2.3	3.6	12.9	11.7	21.6	17.0
																																			
Tot. (all)			34752	791	926	272	332	686	662	1	1	92	64	283	192	1	1	155	198	224	283	1	1	394	434	133	167	69	77	25	41	161	151	250	213
Avg. (all)			2896.0	65.9	77.2	22.7	27.7	57.2	55.2	39.8%	50.4%	7.7	5.3	23.6	16.0	32.5%	32.4%	12.9	16.5	18.7	23.6	69.0%	71.1%	32.8	36.2	11.1	13.9	5.8	6.4	2.1	3.4	13.4	12.6	20.8	17.8
			LOC	ATN	PTS		FGM		FGA		FG%		3PTM		3PTA		3PT%		FTM		FTA		FT%		REB		AST		STL		BLK		TO		FOUL	

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Eli

[Eli]

Just now, Eli said:

ESPN Matchup Predictor: 1.5% chance of a UAlbany win

[cwdickens]

I would expect Virigina to attempt to match or beat their 27-point win over us on March 16, 2007, in the NCAA First Round in Columbus, OH .... memorable trip to Ohio and post-game bar hopping, game not so much. 

[godanesgo99]

Just looking at the analytics on the Barttorvik site... Yesterday (NIU Game) was just the second game the team had an adjusted offensive rating over 100 with a 108.2 (American was 109.4) but the defensive effort was once again terrible with a 110.5. The only games that the team had an adjusted defensive rating better than 100 (D1 Average) was that 92.7 against LIU and the 97.2 against Towson. Everything else has been terrible. That 109.4 ADJO against American was matched with the worst defensive adjusted rating I have ever seen in a game with 140.8 (although that was just a little worse than the 137.9 the team put up against St. Joes). 

If this team wants to win anything in the AE it needs to figure out the defense, and quickly as there is only one more tune up before the real season starts. Virginia should be a crazy sad game. While UA is below average with both offensive and defensive efficiency, Virginia is 111.1/93.0 respectively. #29 offense, #41 defense. This game could be painful to watch. 

 

Current rankings as of today - using only D1 games for the statistics, but all games for the W/L record...

I am surprised that UMBC has popped up so far, and Bryant has fallen so much with the roster they have. 

Edit: Accidentally posted in the wrong thread. Moved the post here. 

Edited December 21, 2022 by godanesgo99

[UAalum72]

3 hours ago, cwdickens said:

I would expect Virigina to attempt to match or beat their 27-point win over us on March 16, 2007, in the NCAA First Round in Columbus, OH .... memorable trip to Ohio and post-game bar hopping, game not so much. 

I doubt UVA has any concern about a forgettable 16-year-old game. They may better that score but not from any special effort 

[Eli]

We are the furthest from the #1 program than I think we have ever been in my time as a UA fan (early 2000's)...so...this is going to be ugly. VERY ugly.

[cwdickens]

3 hours ago, Eli said:

We are the furthest from the #1 program than I think we have ever been in my time as a UA fan (early 2000's)...so...this is going to be ugly. VERY ugly.

A concern: Can we put a hard but expected OOC loss behind us and be ready for New Hampshire three days later?

[Clickclack]

23 hours ago, godanesgo99 said:

Just looking at the analytics on the Barttorvik site... Yesterday (NIU Game) was just the second game the team had an adjusted offensive rating over 100 with a 108.2 (American was 109.4) but the defensive effort was once again terrible with a 110.5. The only games that the team had an adjusted defensive rating better than 100 (D1 Average) was that 92.7 against LIU and the 97.2 against Towson. Everything else has been terrible. That 109.4 ADJO against American was matched with the worst defensive adjusted rating I have ever seen in a game with 140.8 (although that was just a little worse than the 137.9 the team put up against St. Joes). 

If this team wants to win anything in the AE it needs to figure out the defense, and quickly as there is only one more tune up before the real season starts. Virginia should be a crazy sad game. While UA is below average with both offensive and defensive efficiency, Virginia is 111.1/93.0 respectively. #29 offense, #41 defense. This game could be painful to watch. 

 

Current rankings as of today - using only D1 games for the statistics, but all games for the W/L record...

I am surprised that UMBC has popped up so far, and Bryant has fallen so much with the roster they have. 

Edit: Accidentally posted in the wrong thread. Moved the post here. 

I agree...the defense is shockingly bad which is hard to figure out because defense is a lot of effort and some smarts. How can they be this bad on that end. Fine, you recruiter a roster of kids that can't shot...but how can they defend this poorly?

[Dane Pound]

7 hours ago, Clickclack said:

I agree...the defense is shockingly bad which is hard to figure out because defense is a lot of effort and some smarts. How can they be this bad on that end. Fine, you recruiter a roster of kids that can't shot...but how can they defend this poorly?

Some of it is the roster. We were thin in the front court before Neely went down. Now, we're pretty much playing a small forward at the power forward spot all the time. That helps make us one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the country. So we're giving up offensive rebounds and high percentage shots.

Also, we have a lot of small guards this year. Last year, we had Champion, Horton and Cerruti who were all 6'4 guards. This year we're playing Edmead and Davis at the same time a lot of time and opposing guards are having an easier time shooting over them.

[godanesgo99]

Game Day....

Did the break allow the team to work on stuff and hopefully catch Virginia playing sluggish and allow us to at least make it a game for 30 minutes, or is it going to be another game when the defense is like a screen door bottom boat without flex seal? 

My guess is Virginia covers the 27.5 point spread and wins easily. Final score UA 58 Virginia 92.

This team has shown flashes and keeping it fairly close until halftime isn't out of the question, I just think the team will probably settle for too many threes and just watch the deficit grow with each possession. I'm thinking that this teams defense is so bad that they probably all shoot lights out in practice when against each other so they think they can do it against other teams as well.

[UA'08]

23 minutes ago, godanesgo99 said:

Game Day....

Did the break allow the team to work on stuff and hopefully catch Virginia playing sluggish and allow us to at least make it a game for 30 minutes, or is it going to be another game when the defense is like a screen door bottom boat without flex seal? 

My guess is Virginia covers the 27.5 point spread and wins easily. Final score UA 58 Virginia 92.

This team has shown flashes and keeping it fairly close until halftime isn't out of the question, I just think the team will probably settle for too many threes and just watch the deficit grow with each possession. I'm thinking that this teams defense is so bad that they probably all shoot lights out in practice when against each other so they think they can do it against other teams as well.

Threes would probably be the way to win this type of game though. Gotta be one of the highest ranked teams UA has ever played.

[UAalum72]

Aside 

33 minutes ago, UA'08 said:

Threes would probably be the way to win this type of game though. Gotta be one of the highest ranked teams UA has ever played.

Nah, after two losses UVA is down to around #20. Aside from #1 seed UConn in the NCAA, we've lost to #2 Kentucky by 13 in 2015, and to #7 Duke by 41 in 2007; there probably have been more.

[UA'08]

29 minutes ago, UAalum72 said:

Aside 

Nah, after two losses UVA is down to around #20. Aside from #1 seed UConn in the NCAA, we've lost to #2 Kentucky by 13 in 2015, and to #7 Duke by 41 in 2007; there probably have been more.

Got it. Was going by the thread title #6. Didn’t know they’ve lost 2 in a row.

[Eli]

Updating thread title to reflect current ranking. They look to be #13, not #20.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Eli

[UAalum72]

13 minutes ago, Eli said:

Updating thread title to reflect current ranking. They look to be #13, not #20.

All over the map. 18 in NET, 19 in Massey, 22 in Sagarin, 28 in RealtimeRPI